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Checking The Taiwan Barometer
When it comes to global growth canaries, you could do worse than Asian exports and factory output. There's a reason macro watchers are so obsessive about China's economic releases, notwithstanding perennial questions about the veracity of the figures.
In 2023, Taiwan is my preferred canary. As I'm fond of putting it, the island is a barometer for two kinds of hard landings: Economic and geopolitical.
Industrial production figures and export data out of Taiwan are particularly instructive in th
Gettin’ down and granular – There also is monthly data published on order flows to Apple’s main suppliers on the island. The most recent indicated a third monthly decline, at an accelerated pace.
I am also seeing information suggesting that major companies from the island are investing in plants in the US. I am sure they are seeing the writing on the wall. All those new investments here can be reincorporated in Delaware and Bob’s your uncle. If the PRC waits too long Taiwan might be a hollow shell. China needs those chips still.