The August Risk

If you're wondering whether the nascent bull market in US equities risks making the Fed's job more difficult (again), the answer is most assuredly "Yes." Generally speaking, officials are clinging to the idea that the world hasn't changed. That even if a few structural disinflationary enablers disappeared in the 2020s, we haven't transitioned to an entirely new macro regime characterized by persistently hot nominal growth, continual upward pressure on wages and, critically, unrelenting demands