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Bubbly Bulls, Boring Bears And ‘Blah, Blah, Blah’
"Blah, blah, blah."
That's how BofA's Michael Hartnett described the bear case for equities with the S&P having achieved a 20% rebound from the lows in October. Ostensibly, it's a bull market.
As I reminded readers in May of last year, when the S&P breached the 20% threshold on the downside amid the first Fed hikes of the cycle, "bulls" and "bears" and the thresholds that define them are another manifestation of our species organizing around an interconnected system of shared myths whi
May and June 2022 cpi prints were hot. When they drop out soon you will see cpi with a 3 handle year over year. We are in a disinflationary environment. It may not satisfy hawks or the fomc, but that’s the way we are going…2024 sure is going to be interesting
Dude, you’ve been saying variations on, “We’re in a disinflationary environment,” for the last 18 months. It might be time to reexamine your priors.
Until the Fed expedites its balance sheet reduction, this is a no landing economy. Borrowers will continue to borrow as long as credit is available regardless of rates. This has been true in the US since the beginning when tobacco farmers were building plantations on debt, starvation, disease, and death.
Weren’t we just talking about how returning to our more primitive roots might make us all happier? I always loved a good chant: https://youtu.be/tL60GS90KSc
unless inflation comes in icy cold it seems farcical that Powell will try to finesse a hawkish pause given current conditions…markets will laugh in his face action wise imho…