The $1 Trillion Question: Who’s Buying The Bills?
Assuming Kevin McCarthy manages to get his "worthy" debt ceiling accord through a raucous House, the next question for markets is how the ensuing deluge of T-bill issuance, estimated at $1 trillion by the end of Q3, will impact liquidity.
I've obviously spent quite a bit of time editorializing around that question over the past two weeks. Importantly, any liquidity drain from the forthcoming bill tsunami would conspire with a number of other dynamics to create what could be a material headwind
The key is still rates path ahead, which will determines whether MMF wants to extend duration.