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Desensitized Americans Ponder Stagflation In Confidence ‘Beat’
Late last week, I described Americans as a "gloomy" bunch. On Tuesday, The Conference Board said the same, or at least about consumers' outlook.
Although the headline confidence index beat estimates for May at 102.3, the expectations gauge is still indicative of recession.
At 71.5, the forward-looking index of consumers' outlook for the economy and their own finances has loitered below 80 for 14 of the last 15 months. That level (80) typically presages a downturn within a year.
Tuesday's rele
The place where I’ve noted some “green sprouts” of resentment starting to appear is in online rants about businesses of all types trying to solicit tips. No one seems anxious to blame the workers. A more common question is “why don’t the business owners simply pay their staff more?” (A good question when business owners concurrently whine about how hard it is to find and retain workers.)
Just wait until we hear that tips are being requested when you fill your tank at a self-service gas station!!
It’s disinflation folks! Look at real time data. The fomc needs to end qt, and pause rate hikes. Pretty soon we will be seeing cpi trending below 3%. The market smells it as well. China weak growth. Europe weak growth. USA is next.
What RT data are you watching?
Are tips included in CPI? I can’t find the answer.
I am not finding any data series tracking tips, but various media report that in 3Q22 tips at full service restaurants grew +25% and at counter service +17% (citing POS data from Square).
I’d wager the Square numbers for counter service tips will have been even higher in Q4 ’22 and Q3 23 as more and more venues added it to their electronic payment screens. It’s way more effective than a top jar.