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Prospectors, Gamblers And Golden Tickets
Will Nvidia become the most valuable company on the planet?
It's a question worth asking after this week. That's why I asked it just minutes after Nvidia delivered revenue guidance which was (very seriously) described by one firm as "the greatest beat of all time."
As I wrote in the latest weekly+, it wasn't just about the numbers. And it wasn't just about validation for A.I.'s potential as a driver of revenue for the world's biggest companies. Nvidia's projection telegraphed something about t
I did something I don’t usually do after the NVDA earnings. I sold put spreads in it and MSFT. Then as the stock remained fairly flat, but I saw IV rising on both NVDA and MSFT. This is often the sign to sell calls. So I added to the short puts instead. 35% gain in 2 days.
Then I did a quick arithmetic idea. Goldman suggested GAI may disemploy hundreds of millions. So, I guessed about 60million middle class office jobs could be cut, at let’s say $100k a year salary each. That’s $6 trillion in expanding corporate margins that could be added to AI leaders reports.
It’s a great time to be a shareholder, I guess. But as Henry Ford said, I pay my employees enough to buy my cars. In the post Reagan America, I suspect the quote will be “Devil take the hindmost…”
I don’t think society can evolve fast enough to meet the challenges of arbitraging salaries directly to margins.
AI (and Nvidia) just might be the last straw grabbed. It would make a lot of sense in the scheme of dwindling things in the Fed’s way.
So in their likely order, CRE, RRE, AI.
Of course, all three will make a comeback somewhere down the road.
A non-random report from today. My 1999 and 2007 guts tell me I’m way early, but this is sort of feeling toppy to me – a press release every 3.5 hours.
Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) gained nearly 3% – thought well off the best levels of the session – as investors continued to respond favorably to AI-related announcements.
Over the past 24 hours, Nvidia sent out seven press releases, touting its AI capabilities.