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Don’t Short A Bubble
You don't want to short bubbles.
That might sound counterintuitive. After all, if not bubbles, what to short? Besides, "big shorts" make for bestsellers and bestsellers can be good screenplays and... well, do you want Christian Bale to play you in a Hollywood blockbuster or don't you?
Here's the problem, though: Nine times out of 10, you're not going to time it correctly, and by "nine times out of 10" I actually mean "never." You're never going to time it correctly. Successfully shorting bubbl
For me, Nvidia is one of those fish that get away in every investor’s life. I bought it for $30 years ago and later sold it for $75 because it got flat and its actual business future was too concentrated for my taste. I made money enough but my opportunity loss was large.
A couple times in my youth I got concerned the market was too frothy, had a nice profit and I got concerned I’d lose it so I bought some market puts for protection. Got rinsed and I never tried it again because I discovered that unless you could sell both sides, it wasn’t really a hedge, just an expensive insurance premium when there was no loss to save.