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Wall Street’s Most Recognizable Bear Still Cautious
The sell-side's most recognizable bear is still skeptical of any overtly rosy outlook for an inflection in corporate profit growth later this year, but his tone was perhaps less emphatic this week.
"Should the leading data improve, the likelihood of the H2 EPS recovery consensus expects would rise and the probability of earnings eventually approaching our below-consensus $195 base case EPS estimate for 2023 would fall," Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson wrote Monday, noting that the upturn in macro
Price-over-volume is a real thing, and is most clearly visible at an industry or large corporate level. But what if it’s occurring all along the economic food chain? From the person painting your house right up to Exxon Mobile. This would go a long way towards explaining why the economy just hasn’t just gone ahead and crashed out the way history tells us it should have. Time is on our side while this process works itself out.
Anecdotally I am seeing used mid to high end construction equipment trending lower at the same time zip ties and vanity coffee mugs are labelled with prices only a joker would expect and only a fool would pay. Investors in that kind of scam may be disappointed shortly.
A bit of a crazy thought experiment here… if money can be created out of thin air….. and the “economy” is just a commonly accepted illusion… why cant stock multiples be 100x or a 1000x earnings. who cares about falling forward earnings when “growth” in multiple expectation outpace the former.