On a day when a hot average hourly earnings print accompanying the monthly US jobs report suggested the risk of a wage-price spiral is still elevated across the world’s largest economy, a key part of the disinflation puzzle offered a ray of hope.

The Manheim used vehicle index dropped more than 3% in April, data released on Friday showed.

It was the first decline in five months, and, by extension, the first monthly drop of 2023.

The decline was down to the seasonal adjustment factor, but it was nevertheless worth a mention. “While values increased 8.6% through the first quarter from December, the market has reversed course in April,” Chris Frey, senior manager of Economic and Industry Insights for Cox Automotive, said.

Apparently, price declines “accelerated” in the back half of the month. All major market segments recorded a seasonally-adjusted drop.

Notably, April marked the eighth consecutive month of YoY declines.

As you can see from the red annotations (and as Frey made clear), it could get worse if past downturns are good analogues. I’m not necessarily saying they are (good analogues), but some of the dynamics in this market bode poorly for interested parties, even if a prolonged price slump would be helpful in the inflation fight.

“We had 16 months of annualized declines” during the GFC, Frey went on. “Though I’m not predicting doom, we’ve surely started a second, and more rapid, decent off the pandemic peak.”