US jobless claims are getting interesting again, but only mildly so, and I hesitate to use the word “interesting” to describe people who’ve recently been de-jobbed.
Initial claims rose 5,000 last week to 245,000, ahead of consensus. The range was 220,000 to 250,000.
The four-week average now stands at 239,750. That’s actually down from the prior week, but the point is the trend, as illustrated below.
The prior week was revised slightly higher.
To be sure, these aren’t levels that scream “Recession!” but thanks to a raft of revisions unveiled two weeks ago, the numbers are at least worth watching again.
Continuing claims rose 61,000 to 1.865 million in the week to April 8, more than expected.
Meanwhile, the Philly Fed was likewise interesting. The headline gauge printed a below-consensus -31.3, the lowest since 2009 if you exclude the pandemic.
More notable, perhaps, than the headline were the price gauges. Prices paid dropped to 8.2, while prices received printed in negative territory for the first time since May of 2020.
“Over 7% of firms reported increases in prices received for their own goods this month, 10% reported decreases, and 83% reported no change,” the color accompanying the release said, breaking down the received print.
In the special questions for April, firms indicated they expect smaller wage increases, but more than 55% said they’d increased wages and compensation over the past three months. A third said they intend to increase compensation by more than originally planned, and 10% said they were compelled to do so “sooner than originally planned.”
The median expected change for wages in 2023 was 3-4%, down from 4-5% in January, but firms’ outlook for all-in employee costs (so, wages, health benefits and non-health benefits) was unchanged at 4-5% for this year.
The regional Fed surveys are erratic, the Philly survey questions still pointed to elevated price growth (perhaps offsetting some of the disinflationary vibes telegraphed by the price gauges) and jobless claims are still low, so it’d be a mistake to read too much into Thursday’s data. Still, it did nod in the direction of a slower economy — just like most of the incoming data in the US.
