Bulls, Bears And Surprises
Like most people who harbor generalized doubts about humanity, not much surprises me.
I often find that new readers are taken aback by my reluctance to countenance or otherwise traffic in various sorts of geopolitical counter-narrative and financial agitprop. I'm an avowed skeptic (about everything, really), but the problem with contrarian takes on geopolitics and markets is that they tend to be wrong. That's why the payout is so high on the rare occasions they're borne out. Being a contrarian
Fun list, I agree #2 on the Bull Surprises list could be characterized as a surprise in 2023 but beyond that I’m inclined to move “immigration + ChatGPT = back to disinflation” into a high probability list for 2024 and after.