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Solid Jobs Report Clears Fed For Another Hike
The US added slightly more jobs than expected in March, and the unemployment rate moved back near a 70-year low, underscoring the labor market resilience at the heart of the Fed's contention that the economy can handle "higher for longer" rates.
By Friday, consensus for the NFP headline was 230,000. The actual print, 236,000, was thus a beat, although not by the kind of wide margin that might materially alter the market's expectations for monetary policy.
Technically, March was the slowest mon
Here’s a glass half-full: In Feb, job openings showed a major drop and a month later employment was still growing and looking pretty good. In other words, at least for a brief shining moment, the thing the Fed said was gonna happen, to which many economists retorted “Nah, it ain’t gonna happen”, actually did happen. Who knows? Maybe it’ll happen some more, and for long enough to see some disinflationary data to go along with it.
Perhaps the UST market will finally get a reality check, but the FFR futures are still pricing in multi-cuts by the end of the year…
Putin and Russia need to be stopped cold. Macron intentions are good, but he is sadly mistaken to think the Chinese will be helpful. He is being used.
Oops wrong story comment, apologies
Maybe the level of inflation will dictate policy going forward. Inflation in the 2-3% vs 3-5% range are very different realities. Wouldn’t you think you would need positive real rates for an extended period to insure the 2-3%? Until the labor market cracks the Fed will have to keep applying pressure.