11 In A Row: Bank Of England Hikes Again

A day on from the release of data showing food inflation in the UK exceeded 18% in February, the Bank of England delivered an 11th consecutive rate hike.

At the bank’s February gathering, the MPC tipped a potential pause in the statement. Alas, it wasn’t to be.

The vote was 7-2. Obviously, the two dissents (Dhingra and Tenreyro) favored a hold.

The bank mentioned a “material” decline in wholesale natural gas prices and oil, but in explaining the rate hike, the MPC said the growth outlook has improved globally since last month, and noted that “core consumer price inflation in advanced economies has remained elevated.”

As noted above, UK inflation data for February was very disconcerting. Headline CPI was expected to fall into the single-digits for the first time since August. Instead, it reaccelerated to 10.4%, effectively sealing the deal on Thursday’s hike.

The BoE acknowledged the bank chaos or, as the MPC put it, “large and volatile moves in global financial markets” which, policymakers helpfully explained, “reflect market concerns” about the second-largest bank failure in US history and Credit Suisse’s forced tie-up with UBS.

Not surprisingly, the BoE’s Financial Policy Committee “judges that the UK banking system maintains robust capital and strong liquidity positions.” Banks in the UK won’t have any problem supporting the domestic economy throughout “a period of higher interest rates.” The BoE did say it’s monitoring an increase in wholesale funding costs.

The bank’s assessment of recent fiscal measures will be reflected in the next MPR, due in May. Generally speaking, policymakers now harbor a more constructive view of the near-term outlook for the economy.

The new statement acknowledged that “CPI inflation increased unexpectedly in the latest release,” and yet policymakers remain confident that inflation is likely to fall sharply over the rest of the year. And you can take that to the bank. After all, the BoE’s recent forecasting track record is sterling (get it?).

As a reminder, officials in the UK believe inflation is likely to be below target by summer of next year.

“Uncertainties around the financial and economic outlook have risen,” the MPC acknowledged on Thursday. They also nodded to the potential for elevated services sector inflation to intermingle nefariously with wage-setting to create entrenched price pressures.

The forward guidance was vaguely specific (and yes, that’s supposed to be wry humor). “If there were to be evidence of more persistent pressures, then further tightening in monetary policy would be required,” the bank said.


 

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