“Disastrous” might be too strong an adjective. It usually is.
But some less severe synonym would probably work to describe February inflation data out of the UK, released on Wednesday.
I’m not going to bury the lede. Food and non-alcoholic beverage inflation ran at 18.2% YoY last month, according to ONS.
That’s the highest in nearly half a century of data. The UK government has an indicative model that suggests food inflation might’ve been higher in August of 1977, but for our purposes, we can say last month’s pace was the fastest ever.
As ONS explained, “there have been media reports of shortages of salad produce and other vegetables, reportedly because of bad weather in southern Europe and Africa, and the impact of higher electricity prices on produce grown out of season in greenhouses in the UK and northern Europe.”
Vegetable prices rose 18% YoY, the most in 14 years, and the annual rates for bread and cereals, chocolate and confectionery, ready-meals, hot beverages and even sauces (not the sauces!) were the highest since “at least” 2008, the release said, adding that there were “no significant offsetting downward pushes.”‘
Meanwhile, inflation at restaurants and hotels ran above 12% last month. You have to consult a “constructed historical estimate” to find a comparable print (June of 1991). The “main driver” was price hikes for alcohol (not the sauce!).
Overall, UK CPI ran at 10.4% YoY in February, a bitter disappointment for economists who (foolishly, as it turns out) expected the first single-digit print since August. The YoY CPIH print was 9.2%, up from 8.8% in January.
This is bad news for the BoE, whose inflation forecasts have been even more of a joke than most central banks’ projections over the last two years.
Both the central bank and OBR see inflation receding below target by summer of next year, but Jeremy Hunt on Wednesday stated the obvious: Falling inflation “isn’t inevitable.”
As is custom on CPI days, the Chancellor issued an apology. “We recognize just how tough things are for families,” Hunt said, drawing attention to the government’s backstop for households.
Core inflation, at 6.2%, was higher than expected, and services inflation rose to 6.6%. The BoE tipped a pause last month, but you can probably pencil in another hike now. The drop in services inflation at the beginning of the year was “transitory,” apparently.
“Inflation in hospitality is proving particularly sticky,” ING said Wednesday. “We suspect the Bank will want to see more evidence before ending its rate hike cycle entirely, and that’s particularly true after these latest inflation numbers.”
Just one question: “Do you work in business?”




This part of that last embedded clip hurts every time I watch it:
“…is that (finance) something you’d like to get into?
Umm, yeah I wouldn’t mind, but I don’t know, I’d like to get through Christmas first…”
Victory gardens here we come.