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How Much Have CTA And Options Flows Mattered Recently?
How much did systematic re-leveraging matter for the rebound in US equities from October through the end of January?
It's hard to say when you phrase it that way. A lot of things "matter." It's often better to simply quantify the scope of various flows and leave it at that. In my experience (and this goes not just for markets, but for life in general), causal attribution is mostly impossible, and very often leads us astray.
Before I venture too far into the philosophical, let me steer this qui
