What’s Really Behind The Yield Curve Inversions?

Every day, someone, somewhere cites the yield curve (pick a curve, any curve) to argue that a US recession is a foregone conclusion. Of course, a recession is always a foregone conclusion unless you think the economy can grow every, single quarter, uninterrupted, forever. The recession question is always about "when," not "if," which means that in the event a given curve inversion isn't followed by a downturn within some reasonably short window, it's not especially helpful to say the inversion