Terminal Correction

I have some potentially distressing news for those who might've gone all-in on the notion that the Fed wouldn't (or couldn't) make good on the promise implicit in the last dot plot: Terminal rate pricing has moved markedly higher. In fact, it's one full 25bps increment off the bottom of the range established in October, when a tenuous agreement on something in the neighborhood of 5% helped rates vol recede, setting in motion a rally in stocks and bonds, and a dollar swoon which, when measured o