“COVID zero” was expensive.
China notched a record deficit of almost CNY9 trillion in 2022, according to government data. That exceeded the shortfall from 2020, when the world’s second-largest economy was likewise hobbled by the virus.
Growth suffered under Xi’s draconian containment efforts which, by December of last year, were widely viewed as hopelessly anachronistic. In the end, street protests compelled the Party to change course.
For the full year, the economy expanded just 3%, the second-worst showing in five decades.
Although the property crunch was an albatross, “COVID zero” undercut domestic demand and local governments were compelled to shell out massive sums to ensure compliance with the Party’s sweeping containment protocols. Tax rebates aimed at bolstering struggling businesses worsened the government’s fiscal position further.
As a percentage of GDP, the deficit was 7.4% last year, better than 2020’s 8.6%. Beijing, which saw its deficit balloon by more than half in 2022, ran through nearly CNY30 billion for COVID control, a sum that exceeded 5% of the capital’s revenue. Shanghai’s deficit nearly tripled from 2021.
Was it worth it? Well, that’s not up to me to decide. But in the end, “COVID zero” was abandoned virtually overnight, and independent estimates suggest more than a million people died from the virus or complications between December 1, 2022 and January 30, 2023.
Government figures are far lower. For example, the country’s Center for Disease Control and Prevention reported 6,300 COVID-linked deaths at hospitals from January 20 to January 26.

