Join institutional investors, analysts and strategists from the world's largest banks: Subscribe today
Already have an account? log in
US Consumers Real Tired Of Inflation
Real personal spending in the US fell three times more than expected last month, data out Friday showed.
The figures, released as they were a day after the advance read on Q4 GDP, were perhaps amenable to the "stale" treatment from traders, but nevertheless, the more granular look at the state of the American consumer in December was incrementally useful for refining various macro narratives.
The headline personal spending print showed a 0.2% decline, in line with expectations, but real spendi
The savings reaction of consumers was a welcome sight. It tells us consumers were not in “buy before it gets more expensive” mode aka the psychology behind a price spiral (at last for goods). Or, at least, this could be the beginning of such a trend if it persists.
This behavior could be part of the reset needed in the economy. Only question is can we achieve a reset without a hard landing. Probably not.
Nominal growth is heading from 6-7% to below 4%. At this point, the debate about a recession or not is stale. It’s clear the economy is slowing…..all it will take is a modest shock to tip the apple cart. And that’s impossible to forecast.
Check out the stories on car payments and repos making the rounds this morning.