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Newsworthy
It hasn't been a "quiet" week, per se.
But it's been one of those weeks when the news flow was sparse enough that mainstream financial media outlets leaned heavily on stories of questionable relevance for the overarching macro narrative.
"When short sellers attack: Asia's richest man edition" and "NYSE chaos traced to staffer who forgot to turn off lights," easily trumped "Ukraine gets advanced battle tanks" for prominent web space. At least we've moved on from the era when "Trump reinstated o
I don’t think a 2.9% GDP print does much to support the case for Fed easing this year. The current moment feels like we’re in the eye of the storm.
GDP report breakdown wasn’t especially encouraging: https://heisenbergreport.com/2023/01/26/reply-hazy-try-again-later-2/
Thank you for this direction in a noisy market. I have one specific concern regarding the vaccine, if Prof. H would be so kind as to share your perspective. Two years ago (time flies), you suggested that vaccine skeptics (at the time, those who doubted even a single vaccination) should be arrested. Now, as time passes, more questions are surfacing. For instance, a FDA committee member recently published an article in the New England Journal of Medicine stating that he has concerns about the booster shots for younger cohorts, for which he participated in the approval process. And there is a growing body of medical literature that suggests vaccines may have negative side effects. Given the current media coverage, I believe I may have a confirmation bias regarding vaccines. Since 2021, do you have any additional ideas to your initial ones?
Wow man. Those vaccines have saved tens of millions of lives, and side effects are extremely low.
Someone somewhere was injured in an auto accident on the way to a routine doctor appointment, maybe getting a physical isn’t worth the risk.
@Yang Zhang Have you ever read the leaflet that comes with a bottle of over-the-counter pain relievers? Or read the ingredients list on a pack of candy? I mean, with apologies, I’d suggest you can’t possibly be serious, but clearly you are, which makes me sad for you. Literally.
Of course there are risks to vaccines. All vaccines, just like there’s a risk to eating peanuts for the first time, just like there’s a non-zero risk that you’ll be shot trying to buy a cart full of groceries in America, just like there’s a risk that someone will run a stop sign and kill you in your car while you’re driving to an event to present the findings from your COVID vaccine study.
Let me reiterate: Anyone who didn’t get one of those vaccines in a country where they were free and widely available, and then subsequently died from COVID, is an idiot. Or, wait. I should rephrase: Was an idiot.
Hopefully that answers your question. Don’t ask it again.
We should have known the ground was already fertile and inviting for vax denying and related nonsense. It strikes me every time I have the TV on and see the very significant chunks of advertising time dedicated to the lottery or sports betting and DTC drug advertising. The price the FDA/FTC has extracted for the consumerization of pharmaceuticals is to force the companies to reveal the significant side effects. Got dry skin? This will clear it up, if you don’t mind the off-chance of tuberculosis or cancer rearing their heads, but you need to live your best life now. But the one that always gets me, which surely must be mandated, is the obligatory warning not to take the drug if you know you are allergic to it. This would seem to demonstrate that the average American’s ability to discern efficacy and side effects may be no better than a kid learning his colors.
But H’s point about side effects resonates with me. So many of us were raised under the notion of pharmaceuticals as “magic” — a free lunch as it were. This asprin will magically make your headache go away AND help your heart, as opposed to drugs are drugs and their sole effect is to “alter,” sometimes for the good, sometimes for the bad, and most often a mix of the two with a proven skew toward the good. The fact that we can barely get a handle on side effects, doesn’t bode well for getting a handle on actual efficacy. And so while the FDA/FTC tries to protect us from the drug companies, there isn’t much they can do to protect us from ourselves.
I have never doubted for a second that the disease is a threat to humans. As stated by Chairman Powell in a recent statement, this accounted for an estimated “400,000 labor force shortage” in the United States. I am considering this question based on a letter written by a decision-maker and published in a journal regarded as the “medical bible.” Your response does provide an answer. Please accept my sincere appreciation for your time.
With the 25bps hike coalescing as consensus, it led me to wonder if the FED would look to pull a “listen to me when I’m talking to you” maneuver and raise 50bps in Feb. With conditions much “easier” than the FED would like, the 50bps move is more likely that the current zeitgeist would have you believe.
This Federal Reserve seems really averse to surprising markets, so much so that when data emerges during the blackout period necessitating tighter than anticipated policy, the FED leaks the move to the WSJ ahead of time so as to avoid anyone getting bent out of shape. Enough FED speakers have telegraphed a 25bp move for the next meeting that there’s no way they’d deviate from that without telegraphing it first.
“Global equities, meanwhile, are on track for a 6% monthly gain, 200bps better than the S&P’s January rally so far.”
One did not even have to look outside the US (and deal with currency risk) to beat the S&P 500 in January. QQQ has gained 11% in 2023. Over the long term, it is hard to bet against US tech- especially starting now, after the 33% loss experienced in 2022.