There’s something odd about an authoritarian police state, famous for surveilling the masses, that refuses to mandate vaccinations for vulnerable demographics during a public health crisis.
You can’t liken Xi Jinping to Winnie the Pooh, but you can effectively subvert China’s efforts to protect the public from a deadly pathogen by not getting a simple shot. That seems incongruous.
I’m hardly the first person to make that observation, and this isn’t the first time it’s come up in these pages. But it’s relevant again as the Party grapples with outward displays of subversion, including calls for Xi to step down at mass demonstrations nationwide.
Following a rowdy weekend, the protests abated amid a stepped up police presence and heavy censorship on social media. “Shopping malls were closed early, and passersby were regularly stopped for identity checks,” Bloomberg wrote, describing the “buzzing” of police cars in Beijing, officers “on virtually every corner” in Shanghai and reports of authorities “checking people’s smartphones” on the streets for Twitter and YouTube (both banned) and VPNs (widespread use of VPNs is an open secret in China, particularly among professors and students).
Far be it from me to offer Xi advice on how best to wield unchecked power, but it seems to me that a government willing to stop random citizens on the streets for an app check, should be a government ready to compel seniors to be vaccinated. While police were demanding to see phones, a National Health Commission official responsible for immunization was asking the elderly to get a shot.
“I hope the elderly population, especially those over 80…” Xia Gang ventured, at a briefing. He then pivoted to a plea: “Please take the initiative to get yourself vaccinated and protect your own health.” Since when does the Party ask the public to do anything, let alone using the word “please”?
Xia also said the Party would “optimize services and publicity” in an effort to boost China’s national vaccination rate, particularly among seniors. He promised the “earnest implementation of requirements” set out by the State Council, and said the NHC will “organize and implement vaccination work around the country.”
Let’s be clear: Even mandatory vaccines won’t prevent a crisis, because China hasn’t approved an mRNA vaccine for domestic use. Until they import one or manufacture their own at scale (they have several in development, and at least one approved in Indonesia), the Party won’t be able to ease restrictions without risking an overrun healthcare system. They tried paying the elderly to get shots, but that hasn’t proven to be especially effective.
Under immense pressure following the weekend demonstrations, a separate NHC spokesman said local officials should accommodate “reasonable” public demands, and still another warned against “long-term lockdowns” with the potential to “impact the general public’s normal life and work.”
The softer tone from officials helped propel Hong Kong-listed Chinese shares to a rollicking Tuesday rally. H-shares are on track for one of their best months in history. But one way or another, it seems likely that China is going to crash out of “COVID zero.” Whether that’s a good thing or a bad thing for Chinese assets is anyone’s guess.
“Local governments struggle to balance quickly bringing the spread of the virus under control and obeying the ’20 measures’ which mandate a more targeted approach,” Goldman’s Hui San wrote this week, referring to the perilous juggling act foisted upon local officials from on high.
Failing to manage an outbreak that results in deaths could be very bad, but daily exhortations against overzealous restrictions suggest officials whose policies contribute to social unrest could be subjected to browbeating too.
“The central government may soon need to choose between more lockdowns and more COVID outbreaks,” Goldman went on to say. The bank now sees additional downside risk to their already below-consensus GDP forecast for the current quarter. Goldman’s 30% subjective probability of reopening before Q2 of 2023 “includes some chance of a forced and disorderly exit,” Hui remarked, in the same note.
Again, it’s impossible to say whether a “forced and disorderly exit” (a crash out) would be bullish, bearish or something in-between for local assets, which are coming off a banner month thanks to re-opening speculation.
Addressing the press on Tuesday, Cheng Youquan, an NHC supervisor, said long-term lockdowns “can easily trigger anxiety.” (I don’t know what would’ve given him that idea.) “Such wrongful practices must be addressed and avoided,” Cheng added.
Perhaps mommy dearest, is an anti-Vaxer
Really funny comment- in a dark manner. But truly, can’t all men’s problems be traced back to what mommy either did or should have done, but did not?
Qi Xin is 96!
As a junior in college in the mid-90s, I studied abroad in Japan for a year. One of the exchange students was a Chinese woman, and I came to learn that she had been a protester at Tienanmen square. In a conversation about that, she was asked if she still believed in the same principles that had motivated her back then. She answered, “No, we don’t need Democracy anymore, now we have business.” I’ve never forgotten that.
If China is the center of the world and it is important that the entire world understands this,then it would be unseemly, especially at present, to purchase an external solution to this situation.
On the other hand, playing a longer game, it would have been easier to manage the attendant ramifications of said purchase if one had chosen that path initially. Circumstances have played out in such a way that the leader has painted himself, and his country, into a corner.
Nationalism?
Pride?
Myopic vision?
Perils of Autocracy?
Are you watching this unfold Elon?
Above should read, “If China is the center of the Universe…”