Americans awoke to the shrill bleating of iPhone alarms and the acrid smell of decaying democracy on Wednesday.
As a quick reminder, the country is still choosing its lawmakers at the ballot box until 2024, when the US is tentatively scheduled to mark a transition to what some scholars call “contested” or “competitive” authoritarianism, modeled loosely on the Viktor Orban regime.
I’m just kidding. Only not really.
There was no “red tsunami” in the US midterms. Republicans were poised to take the House, but that was a foregone conclusion. Even there, early indications suggested something less than a commanding margin. That’s suboptimal for Kevin McCarthy. The smaller the majority, the more beholden he is to the party’s rambunctious Trump contingent, none of whom are famous for practicality. If Nancy Pelosi struggled to herd Progressive cats, McCarthy’s job won’t be any easier with the “Great Again” faithful.
Of course, it wasn’t a “good” night for Democrats either. I suppose “purple mud” might be the best way to described the red-blue quagmire that emerged Wednesday. It’ll be gridlock, that’s for sure. But perhaps not the “friendliest” kind for market participants, many of whom were hoping for a more resounding rebuke of Democrats given inflation realities.
As for the Senate, Republicans were dealt a bitter disappointment in Pennsylvania, where John Fetterman overcame a late game stroke and associated health questions to top Mehmet (Dr.) Oz, his 10 “properties” and his many, many millions.
Fetterman rubbed it in — accidentally. “I’m so humbled, thank you so much,” he said, innocently. “I’m proud of what we ran on — protecting a woman’s right to choose, raising the minimum wage,” he continued, adding that “healthcare is a fundamental human right. It saved my life and it should be there for you if you should ever need it.”
It probably didn’t help that Oz’s campaign (but not Oz) mocked Fetterman’s stroke. At one juncture, when queried about insensitive remarks made by staffers, Oz, a cardiothoracic surgeon, admitted he wouldn’t talk to his own patients the same way his campaign talked about Fetterman.
In Georgia, it was a foot race. On land, foot races with Herschel Walker end poorly for the pursuer, but at the ballot box, it was a tougher contest. The embattled gridiron legend, whose Vince Dooley boost sadly (and ominously) became a posthumous endorsement late last month, was still trailing Raphael Warnock into the early hours of Wednesday. A runoff was possible. Walker’s record in literal runoffs is very good. But Warnock’s in electoral runoffs is better. Notably, Walker underperformed Brian Kemp, who easily beat Stacey Abrams for the governorship, perhaps suggesting Abrams’s star is fading.
JD Vance fared well in Ohio, which was among the only things that went unequivocally well for Donald Trump, who used an eleventh hour rally for Vance to tease a 2024 run. Otherwise, Trump’s hand-picked, motley crew of 2020 election skeptics didn’t deliver the kind of resounding, across-the-board victories he might’ve expected. But his only serious rival for the GOP ticket in 2024 did. Ron DeSantis rolled to a landslide in Florida’s governor race, just a day after Trump threatened him on Fox. “If he runs, he could hurt himself very badly,” Trump warned Monday. “I would tell you things about him that won’t be very flattering — I know more about him than anybody, other than, perhaps, his wife.” (Trump might want to consider what a Florida governor might know about a Florida resident.)
Several staunch Trump adversaries prevailed in their own races. Gretchen Whitmer, a frequent Trump target and the subject of a ludicrous kidnapping conspiracy, beat Tudor Dixon for another term as Michigan governor. Whitmer, the Times noted, “often reminded voters of the violent threats she faced, saying her state needed a ‘problem solver, not a culture warrior,’ [while] Dixon made light of the threats.”
Meanwhile, Letitia James was re-elected as New York’s attorney general, and Kathy Hochul became the state’s first woman to be elected governor, securing a full term upon besting Trump-backed Lee Zeldin. “The lesson… is that given the choice, New Yorkers refuse to go backward on our long march toward progress,” Hochul declared.
Coming back to Capitol Hill, where progress goes to die and rioters go to riot, Democrats certainly won’t be excited about losing the House, and control of the Senate wasn’t guaranteed. But behind any sad faces will be a wry smirk. This really shouldn’t have been close. Inflation is the highest in 40 years. A Republican party that can’t deliver a sweep when headline CPI is 8% and there’s a very plausible connection to a Democratic stimulus package, is a Republican party that’s doing something wrong.
And that’s just the thing. Republicans thought they were doing this right. And in some locales, they were. Trump has made it very difficult for the GOP to discern where the culture wars are relevant, and where traditional issues matter more. Not playing the culture war card where it’s advantageous means leaving (a lot) of votes and money on the table. But pushing the culture wars envelope where it isn’t necessarily wanted, risks losing key demographics to moderate Democrats.
Lindsey Graham summed it up: “It’s definitely not a Republican wave — that’s for darn sure.”
The very relevant Brian Kemps’ Georgia will get a visit to Atlanta from Lindsey Graham who understands the winds of relevance.
It turns out that our kids were listening when we taught them not to be sore losers.
My fondest hope is that DeSantis and Trump will tear each other to pieces in pursuit of the GOP presidential nomination, sort of like Godzilla vs. Megalon with red neckties. Two huge, lumbering beasts, grappling in a bloody, highly entertaining battle royale before ultimately falling off the edge of the Earth, never to be seen again.
This is also my hope and I’m sure we’re not alone in feeling this way.
Ron is going to face the same dilemma everyone else does with Trump. You can’t “out-Trump” him — he is Trump. And he’s a former US president with a security detail, so when he does things like allude to your spouse (which he’s already doing to Ron), you just have to sit there and take it. That’s a serious consideration. If you’re DeSantis, and you’re at an in-person debate with him, you can’t act aggressive in any way, shape or form. You can argue with him, of course, but you have to watch what you say and especially how you say it while you’re in close proximity to him. Again: He’s a former president. We protect former presidents very jealously regardless of how they performed while in office. So, basically, Trump can say whatever he wants, whenever he wants to say it. I think that’s wrong, particularly when what he’s saying is in some cases akin to yelling “Fire!” in a crowded theater, but until somebody, somewhere indicts him, he’ll be forgiven for just doing whatever he wants. What’s vexing about this is that countless people, from both parties, and in all manner of official capacities, have publicly accused him of breaking various laws, but none of those allegations ever manifests in an indictment. It’s not that I sympathize with Trump (I most assuredly don’t), it’s just that if there are never any consequences for him regardless of what he does or says, then why would anyone expect him to tone it down, especially when toning it up always works?
Yeah, Desantis might be better off waiting Trump out. He’s 44 years old and can stay in the Florida’s governor’s mansion a while. If he takes Trump on directly and somehow wins (which I think would be unlikely due to Trump’s cult following), Trump would happily sabotage him in the general election and the presidential election would be an instance where I think Trump could influence enough people to tilt the election towards Democrats.
If Democrats hold the senate, this counts as a very good election for them. All the fundamentals pointed to a Republican sweep. Trump continues to sabotage the party by pushing terrible candidates and conspiracies. There were a couple exceptions, but Democrats and Republicans who have stood up to Trump performed well in key states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Georgia. At this point, I consider Ohio and Florida to be solid red states anyway, so I’m not as worried about those. Kari Lake will probably win Arizona, but we might see Arizona vote for the Democratic secretary of state which is a very important position in a key state.
Democrats need to hold the line for a couple more elections, but this doesn’t look like an election that sets up a Trump coup in 2024. The margins in the House matter and the closer it is to even, the less likely Republicans will be to any sort of malfeasance.
Oh yeah, and Pennsylvania too! That’s an important one 🙂
I believe Mr. Trump will be seeing first-hand the consequences of his law-breaking ways very soon. I’m no clairvoyant, but I “see” Trump’s real legal troubles coming forth in a matter of weeks, possibly as late as January, but maybe sooner. The Justice Department has reason to take action against him after the dust settles from the election. The work of the Jan 6 committee has greatly helped the Justice Department understand the breadth and depth of the Donald’s many-faceted malfeasance. I reckon he’s finally going down.
Avoided election news yesterday, slept anxiously, awakened to better than I’d feared but worse than I’d hoped.
Seth Moulton speaker of the house, etc.
Candidate quality might matter after all. Boebert is still behind with 90% counted. The initial NYT projections that she would win with something like a 17% margin have been whittled all the way down to .7% as of this morning.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/08/us/elections/results-colorado-us-house-district-3.html
I live in the populist (politically) immoral red echo chamber/proactive pre re-education camp region, and that has vanquished my decades old R with a forever I, and almost constantly stoked my anxiety around the future of this country that i have loved, and served to my detriment. I am very happy with some of the big solids coming out of this purple mud.
For sale: Montgomery County, PA mansion.Owner, a medical professional, forced to relocate to NJ on short notice. Rarely occupied. Best offer.
If only he would relocate to Russia or some other place in hell reserved for snake-oil peddlers turned (actual and would-be) authoritarian kleptocrats!
This was an ok night for the Democrats especially if they hold the Senate. Really bad night for Trump and a very good night for Desantis.