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Europe Set For Bear Market, Recession As Money ‘Pours Out’
Risk assets were in trouble Friday, as European shares careened lower amid poor data, war worries an
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Pre-market futures are starting to look a little like capitulation. But with the global macro backdrop as grim as it currently is, why would anyone want to jump back into equities post a capitulation event? IOW, things could get worse — much worse — before they start to get better.
Xi must be pleased.
21 Q4 I was buying Europe and some EM.
Cut my losses in April.
Pandemic is one thing,heartbreaking,expensive.
War; self-inflicted heartbreak, expensive.
Modi said it simply.
“ now is not a time for war.”
I am wondering how negative investor expectation has become for 3Q earnings and guides. Sentiment is so bearish, does that suggest an increasing chance of mediocre reports being treated as positive surprises? Or are we in such a macro-dominated period that reports don’t matter?
IEFA now has a forward dividend yield of 4.81%. Sure, there will be some dividend cuts going forward, but if you have a long-term horizon, it doesn’t seem like a bad time to jump into Europe (or ex-US/Canada, which is what IEFA actually represents). I will gamble and wait for the yield to hit 6%.