Cancel the blaring TV recession coverage for a day.
In news that was only notable by reference to other news, the August vintage of the Philly Fed survey topped the highest estimate from nearly three-dozen economists in data out Thursday.
At 6.2, the general business conditions print was far better than anticipated and stood in stark contrast to a truly unfortunate plunge in the Empire gauge which grabbed a few headlines earlier this week.
The rebound from July’s slump (figure below) was a welcome development at the margins, although it won’t move any needles.
Gauges of new orders and shipments both rose handily, although at -5.1, the former was hardly ebullient. Recall that the same indexes in the New York Fed survey were abysmal.
The six-month outlook in the Philly gauge improved as well, although firms still expect overall declines.
Perhaps most notably, the price gauges dropped to levels which, while still elevated, are at least within range of something that remotely approximates normalcy (figure below).
That, at least, was consistent with the Empire survey, which likewise showed prices moderating.
In the accompanying special questions, firms forecast consumer inflation over the next year will be 6%, down from 6.5% when the question was last posed in May. Over the next decade, firms’ median forecast for consumer inflation was 3%, also lower than businesses’ projections three months ago.
Meanwhile, US jobless claims fell for the first time in three weeks. Initial claims were 250,000 in the week to August 13. Economists expected 264,000. The prior week was revised lower.
None of the above screams “recession.”
