Hot Jobs Report Leaves Fed Locked In On 75

The US economy added far more jobs than expected in June, the government's hotly-anticipated monthly report showed. The headline print, 372,000, easily topped the 265,000 forecast and came within shouting distance of the highest estimate from more than six-dozen economists surveyed. Revisions trimmed 68,000 from April's headline and 6,000 from May's, leaving an almost uniform pace of job gains over the last four months (figure below). The robust figures were amenable to a "good news is bad
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8 thoughts on “Hot Jobs Report Leaves Fed Locked In On 75

  1. I get the sense of ongoing economic resilience, despite the headwinds. I’m guessing it will persist, despite the Fed’s 75 basis points.

    My memories of past economic downcycles include slow, but massive train wrecks in the worst cases. “Normally” downcycles at least include a rollover across the economy. But this downcycle seems to be different. There’s genuine, ongoing strength. Sure, in reality economic times vary in character. Perhaps I’m impatient for the rollover. Maybe. And maybe it’s just my opinion, but the ground beneath this economy feels different.

    I am concerned about the growing gulf in our society between those who are financially secure from month to month, and those who are less secure in their ability to own a home, pay the rent, and eat. I’m not worried about my own state of affairs. My stocks are down, but they’re resilient. And I have capital.

    I reckon there are a lot of people like me, a good proportion, who are simply comfortable with their financial state and investments, despite the expected economic downcycle. We are a country of haves and have-nots. But the gulf grows wider and deeper as we speak.

    I have always found mystery in the interweaving impacts and influences between politics and economics. The fact that I never studied either discipline likely accounts for my lack of insight to fully understand them. But we just lived through six years of political chaos in the form of Donald Trump and his wacked-out legion of deranged followers.

    Capitalism is a system of winners and losers. Are our economy and politics today setting the scene for broader discord and disassociation across the American body politic by facilitating deeper economic divides? It’s a risk. Can the American political system be sustained in the midst of this? I guess we need to roll the dice to find out. But in the meantime, I’m cheering on the Jan 6 Select Committee, which enables a measure of confidence.

  2. The solutions to our problems do not lie with the FOMC. We need more immigration, child care, public health and health care reform to make working more attractive to those staying home and living in the USA along with new residents to increase the labor supply. Demand management is definitely suboptimal and not the major problem here. Supply chains are an issue as well, but they seem amenable to incremental reform and time healing those wounds. And at some point NATO is going to need to address the malign influence of Russia. I see greater involvement in NATO there as a necessary evil- Russia is a third world oil and gas giant with nukes. It is causing havoc far above its real importance in the world. It is time to call Vlad’s bluff.

  3. The idea that the US is a country of haves/have nots is inaccurate. It is a country of haves/have mores. Sometimes much much mores.

    Any conversation about fixing our problems must start from the reality that even poor people here are much wealthier than they’ve ever been.

      1. I cannot emphasize enough how incorrect the comment above is. There are pockets in America of Third World-style poverty. In Appalachia, for example. Our low-income housing projects are war zones in some cities. The US ranks astoundingly bad on any number of relevant metrics, not just compared to rich countries, but relative to some emerging markets too. This is absolutely a “haves and have nots” society. The idea that poor people are “wealthy” is unfathomably out of touch, unless by “wealthier” you mean they have access to modern amenities that simply didn’t exist a century ago.

        1. I have to agree with Mr H: in England (or France or Germany or Japan etc) the poor complain while in government housing and knowing medical care is available. Their children will be educated including University if they have the aptitude.

          The “have nots” in the US sleep on streets and die of hunger and disease. The working poor live day to day knowing there’s no safety net.

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