Minerd Once Saw $400k Bitcoin. Now He Just Sees ‘Bunch Of Yahoos’

Sometimes, Guggenheim’s Scott Minerd is unequivocally correct. Like that time, on February 27, 2020, when he told Bloomberg’s Joe Weisenthal on live television that “this has the potential to [turn] into something extremely serious.”

By “this” he meant COVID-19. As some readers are likely aware, COVID-19 did indeed turn into something “extremely serious.”

That day, Minerd said the virus was “possibly the worst thing I’ve ever seen in my career.” It sounded hyperbolic. And I suggested as much. Minerd was right. I was wrong.

On December 17, 2020, Minerd told Bloomberg that Guggenheim’s “fundamental work” showed Bitcoin “should be worth about $400,000.” Again, it sounded hyperbolic. And again, I suggested as much. And once again, Minerd was right and I was wrong. Bitcoin more than tripled from where it traded when Minerd floated the $400,000 figure.

The difference between Minerd’s COVID call in early 2020 and his public remarks about Bitcoin 10 months later, is that the jury is still out on the latter. Bitcoin rose and it rose a lot, but nowhere near $400,000. Now, it’s back below $30,000 thanks in part to this month’s theatrics in the Terra ecosystem, where, by the way, Luna will be resurrected after falling to — checks current price — $0.000102. Do Kwon, Terra’s founder, won approval Wednesday to transfer the LUNA ticker to a new coin on a new blockchain. The old Luna, the demise of which was tied to its role as the balancer token for Kwon’s collapsed algorithmic stablecoin, TerraUSD, will henceforth go by LUNC, or “Luna Classic.”

In Wednesday remarks to Bloomberg’s Tom Keene, Minerd admitted that May’s crypto wipeout cast considerable doubt on the viability of digital tokens. “I was an early believer. I remember getting — looking — into Bitcoin first when it was at $100,” he said, in an interview from Davos. “I really thought this is a viable investment vehicle.”

Now, he isn’t so sure. “No one has cracked the paradigm in crypto,” Minerd said. By that, he meant crypto hasn’t succeeded in becoming a currency. “We’ve learned that none of this stuff [is] a medium of exchange [or] a store of value.” He continued:

Everything is suspect. Bitcoin and any cryptocurrency at this point has not really established itself as a credible institutional investment. It’s really become the market of a bunch of yahoos and backwaters.

Asked by Lisa Abramowitz if he had “any crypto investments” left, Minerd responded that he sold Bitcoin at $40,000.

“My latest work, which is entirely technical, because there’s nothing left to look at here, is that we’re probably going to hit $8,000,” he went on to say.

The figure (above) is supposed to be humorous, but it’s a testament to the impossibility of valuing Bitcoin.

From a $400,000 “fundamental” bull case to an $8,000 “entirely technical” bear case in 18 months. That’s quite the about-face.

“So you have no holdings?” Abramowitz pressed. “No. If I were, I’d be short,” Minerd said.