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US Consumer Sentiment Goes From Bad To Awful
If it's a foregone conclusion, is it worth mentioning?
Probably not, but if that's the standard, th
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I wonder what to make of these surveys. I recall responding to a a U of M survey back in the early 1980’s when I was in a somewhat downbeat mood. I don’t know when it was published and didn’t think to check if my mood had any effect on the markets.. But durable goods sentiment numbers are worse than 2008. Either everyone’s whining or we are in for the mother of all recessions. My money’s on the former.
I responded to the U of M sentiment survey recently. Alas, I probably didn’t pull the numbers up any.
I also happened across the U of M’s breakdown of sentiment by political affiliation. May 2022 Index of Consumer Sentiment is 76.1 for Democrats, 57.4 for Independents, 41.2 for Republicans. Similar pattern for Current Economic Conditions and Index of Consumer Expectations. I find that quite interesting.
I too found that interesting, and went to the source ( https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/fetchdoc.php?docid=69959 ). The really interesting part (and oh too obvious) is the relationship of sentiment to party in power. The data are scant in the early times, but pretty clearly the sentiment is far more positive if your party is in power. Reagan (1984-5): Rep > Dem, Bush (2006,08): Rep > Dem (and dropping fast during the GFC), then a tie for the first couple months of Obama’s first term, at the depths of the market swoon, then a clear shift to Dem > Rep for the next eight years until Trump: Rep > Dem, and finally in Dec 2020 with Biden: Dem > Rep. Obvious perhaps, but such remarkable fidelity for that record. Nothing unclear about the bimodal distribution of sentiment.
H-Man, really not surprising when you think about what is going on that makes you feel good.
“The last time buying conditions for homes were as bad as they are now, mortgage rates were 16%”
In terms of consumer sentiment?
Yes.