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Traders Await Crucial US Data As Biden Confronts Dismal Polls
A slate of top-tier US data greets market participants in the new week, as equities look to build on what most analysts contend is a bear market rally.
Over the past two weeks, a combination of flows and positioning served to sling-shot equities higher despite an extraordinarily daunting macro backdrop defined by war, inflation, decelerating growth and a lingering pandemic. Monetary policy is less supportive amid efforts to quell price pressures. If you believe the Fed, policy will turn mildly
The far white may have assumed a lack of leftists on January 6 being a form of fear may not recognize that it was a form of discipline.
I’m neither an ardent Democrat nor an ardent Joe Biden fan (although I did carry him from the Wilmington, DE train station to his house in Greenvilee in my cab a few times back in the late-70s, and I like him personally). But I fail to see why his poll numbers are so low. I think he’s been doing a damned decent job. If Democrats and Independents can’t take a look at what the alternatives are, and suck it up & keep Trump and his MAGA followers at bay with their votes, then my lingering feelings of empathy for the less fortunate are probably going to just fade away entirely.
I’m not sure it’s possible for a US president to have good poll numbers anymore.
The simple mindedness of uneducated voters means the president gets blamed for everything going wrong. They can’t begin to invest the mental energy required to understand the causes and effects around what is happening to them. The simplistic “news” that paints enemies and allies is a reflection of how they view the world. The reality that everything is incredibly complex and that there are no real “allies” for them is too challenging to accept. So “Blame it on Biden” will be the mantra until Trump (or the next Trump) takes over in 2024 where the blame will shift to “Leftists”, “Socialists”, and “Democrats”.
H-Man, it does appear that Ukraine turn may into a “Donbas quagmire”. Meanwhile every time the Whitehouse has to walk back Joe’s comments, it does little help his cause or, for that matter, the Democrats chances of maintaining control of both the Senate and the House. Then toss in the Powell inflation war, and well, it just looks down right bleak for the markets to sustain any long term rally.
I haven’t bothered to read details on how the polling is conducted. But if you asked me “do you approve of Biden overall?” I would say no–and I would still vote for him in 2024 if he runs. What if the question were “would you want Donald Trump (withholder of Ukrainian assistance) to replace Joe Biden?” –what would the numbers look like? In any case, I think the best we can hope for is a smoke-filled room deal: Joe, don’t run in 2024. Kamala: don’t run for president. Democratic moderates: you have a wide-open primary, and you will choose Kamala Harris as VP.
The questions should follow this thread “Do you approve of Biden?” > “Do you regret voting for Biden if you did?” > “Would you vote for Trump if the 2020 election were conducted again?” > “Would you vote for another candidate in the 2024 Democratic primary over Biden?” > “Would you vote for Biden again in 2024 if Trump were the GOP candidate?”
That would provide a clearer view than “Do you approve of Biden?”