Russia wants a “friendly, demilitarized Ukraine,” Sergei Lavrov said Thursday, after meeting with his Ukrainian counterpart, Dmytro Kuleba, in Turkey.
It was a morbidly amusing assessment from the notoriously deadpan Lavrov. The Kremlin apparently believes the most expedient way to go about facilitating “friendly” relations with Ukraine is to invade it and “demilitarize” it with the military.
It’s impossible to take Russia even a semblance of serious at this point. The absurdity gets ratcheted higher every, single day. Earlier this week, for example, Maria Zakharova, Russia’s de facto propaganda minister, accused the US and Ukraine of developing biological weapons in secret labs where scientists conduct experiments using anthrax, cholera and the black plague, among other pathogens. Zakharova’s claims, which were echoed by Dmitry Peskov and amplified by Beijing, were branded as “laughable” by the Pentagon.
Kuleba said no progress was made on a ceasefire Thursday. Russian officials, he lamented, “live in their own reality.”
Nevertheless, Kuleba said he’s willing to meet again using the same format. Ukraine is ready for diplomacy, but will defend itself, he reiterated. So far, Ukraine’s efforts on the defensive front have been staunch enough to stymie the Russian military machine, which continues to perform head-scratchingly bad.
Putin now appears intent on engineering a humanitarian crisis of epic proportions for the sake of it. It’s no longer obvious what the strategic objective is. There may not be one anymore. The Kremlin this week denied it plans to overthrow the Volodymyr Zelenskiy government, which Putin has called a “drug-addicted Nazi junta.”
Obviously, Putin would prefer to replace the government in besieged Kyiv with a Kremlin-friendly regime, but he might accept some manner of “compromise” that sees Zelenskiy cede Donbas and agree to neutrality. Zelenskiy won’t cede any territory, though. A Ukrainian official told Bloomberg on Wednesday the country won’t give up “a single inch.”
Besides, “the Ukrainian people… may well not go along with it, risking a Syria-style insurgency,” Rabobank’s Michael Every wrote Thursday. “This is not to say Ukraine won’t eventually be forced into accepting such Melian terms, especially if the West refuses to back it any further [but] that ‘off-ramp,’ which markets will cheer, would mean a Russian military and geopolitical victory and Ukraine losing sovereignty,” he went on to say, adding that such an outcome “opens doors to more wars elsewhere in the future.” The “can-kicking market” would much rather that than more volatility now, he quipped.
Meanwhile, the UK froze Roman Abramovich’s assets, throwing the future of Chelsea into doubt. The club can’t sell tickets and its merchandise stores will be shuttered. It can’t transfer players or sign new contracts either. Boris Johnson said he’ll be “ruthless in pursuing those who enable the killing of civilians, destruction of hospitals and illegal occupation of sovereign allies.” All in all, the UK froze the assets of seven high profile Russians, including the CEOs of Gazprom and Rosneft, as well as Oleg Deripaska. The measures are “valued” at some $20 billion.
The ruble managed a small gain after plunging 13% on Wednesday, when Moscow trading finally resumed. China widened the band for the CNY/RUB cross to 10% after banks essentially stopped making markets. The bid-ask widened out to 197 pips on Wednesday. The scope of the depreciation (figure below) is quite something.
In Moscow, officials said they’ll do whatever’s necessary to stabilize prices. It’s not immediately clear what that means, but I suppose the Kremlin will unveil some manner of “plan” in the near future. Expect Russia’s collection of arm’s length, US-based “blogs” to go to absurd lengths to explain why rampant inflation isn’t inevitable and how economic ruin isn’t a foregone conclusion. If Putin defaults, the same sites will attempt to explain that away too. One wonders why that motley crew of web portals aren’t required to register with the US as foreign agents, and the assets of their owners frozen, à la Abramovich.
“Putin is not refusing to meet with Zelenskiy, but in order for this to happen we need to do some preliminary work,” Lavrov went on to say, following the meeting with Kuleba in Antalya. “I don’t want to believe… I don’t believe in nuclear war,” he added.
China showing it’s hand today with social media crackdown on negative Russia comments. Who cares about human life when you can buy boatloads of Russian oil, gas and commodities at bargain basement prices.
On the positive side, Putin has accused the west of waging economic warfare against Russia. Finally, we agree on something! Perhaps he’s not completely detached from reality after all. On a more serious note… oh never mind. We’re all floating in more serious notes.
China opened the door to World War III. When Putin uses chemical or biological’s it more than likely will first be used on his own troops or he will fabricate a facility . A no fly zone will be the only reasonable response.
Putin and Xi have too much faith in Russian missilery.
Xi will prove history doesn’t rhyme, it mimics.
“Most people rarely think about it, but in the last few decades we have managed to rein in famine, plague and war. Of course, these problems have not been completely solved, but they have been transformed from incomprehensible and uncontrollable forces of nature into manageable challenges. We don’t need to pray to any god or saint to rescue us from them.”
-page 1 of Homo Deus.
I hope Yuval is correct.
You are so correct. Working towards a brighter future is a wonderful thing and it does happen.
The racist crowds of, “Make Russians great again, make the Chinese great again, make White Americans great again completely discount that. Nietzsche understood how resentment is the enemy of progress. Backward looking resentment is such a powerful political tool.
The thing that bothers me about Xi’s China and Taiwan is how overtly racist it is. That racism gives continence to the insistence that the race and all the lands it has occupied naturally should be one and of course superior to people like the Tibetans.
Taiwan had a somewhat unique ethnic profile until Chiang kai-shek, his armies and followers were driven out of the mainland by Mao’s forces. When they arrived, they treated the existing inhabitants VERY badly. Treating them as inferior beings and even slaughtering some who were not excited about the Kuomintang taking over and imposing martial law That lasted 40 years, until 1987.
As a consequence, I recall hearing old timers waxing nostalgic about the pre-war period when the island was ruled by Japan. Think about that.
Rather contrary to the utopic vision fed to Americans by Henry Luce.
This is a very knowledgable reply. Thank you..
I find it interesting that TSMC is somewhat quietly building a $12B manufacturing facility in Arizona and another facility in Japan.
I am still surprised that Foxconn has backed off of their Wisconsin facility-given the looming problem of China.
“Melian terms” (I had to look it up): https://military-history.fandom.com/wiki/Melian_dialogue
Trump was recently said to have a crush on Putin because the Russian could kill any enemy whenever he wanted. Trump openly voiced a wish that he could do that. And nobody says no to Putin …. except the Ukrainian leadership. The problem is that Gazprom’s pipes to Europe go through the Ukraine and those guys can mess with those pipes and hurt Russia’s cash flow. Putin wants/needs to have full control over those pipes (and the wheat and the valuable metals) that Unkraine supplies to the world. The agenda is: kill the refuseniks.
Watch this PBS interview with Julia Iofee. It is among the best things I have seen or read on what is happening in Ukraine: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kSNo2FPQDQw