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Multiplying Crises Now ‘Exceed Our Capacity For Statistical Prediction’
One of the defining features of markets in the post-pandemic era is the inability to form consensus around the long-term.
I've written on this extensively. Traders, lacking visibility on inflation and thereby bereft when it comes to long run macro forecasting, have instead focused exclusively on the Fed and short-term monetary policy "as if it were the only thing that matters," as Deutsche Bank's Aleksandar Kocic put it in November.
That's contributed to a variety of aberrations in rates, lead
Multiple dimensions of uncertainty in all this. Upon reading about Treasury’s and Justice’s newly forming task forces devoted to “go after these oligarchs and any illegal activities with renewed force” (cnn article), I wonder if they’ll turn up, for example, the other end of a money laundering chain that leads back to the Trumps or simply an angry oligarch who’s finally ready to serve up some vengeance upon, well, any significant figure in the US corporate or political world who has been engaged in questionable activities. These are some interesting trees that are going to be shaken.
When the Motherland is attacked as Putin is telling the Russian public anything is possible. They will fight like it’s Stalingrad 1942.
I have a feeling that the Russian fighters sitting in their new trenches around Stalingrad may have a long wait. (Not near as many losses as those in Kyiv).
Further evidence that “statistical prediction” is mostly based group think, not science. Taken with a grain of salt.