Russia kept its stock market shuttered for a third day Wednesday as the finance ministry finalized a plan for the sovereign wealth fund to deploy $10 billion buying local stocks in order to prevent a meltdown.
Moscow resorted to a conceptually similar scheme in 2008. The current trading halt is the longest since the country’s financial crisis a quarter century ago.
London-listed Russian shares plummeted again. Sberbank fell 91%. The figure (below) captures this entire debacle quite succinctly.
That’s Sberbank, but it’s also Russia. Russia may be going to zero.
Europe is in the process of liquidating and otherwise winding down Sberbank’s regional businesses amid a bank run. It’s not a solvency crisis, per se, it’s a liquidity crisis. The bank’s websites appeared to be unavailable at the time of writing, but according to Bloomberg, the bank issued a statement on one of its web portals announcing plans to withdraw from the European market given its inability to supply liquidity to subsidiaries due to a decree from Russia’s (sanctioned) central bank.
Europe’s bank resolution board said Sberbank Europe AG, based in Austria, will be liquidated. “The SRB determined on 27 February that Sberbank Europe AG in Austria and its subsidiaries in Croatia and Slovenia were failing or likely to fail due to a rapid deterioration in their liquidity situation,” an SRB statement said. All shares of the group’s Croatian and Slovenian subsidiaries will be transferred to Croatian Postbank and NLB d.d., respectively. “The banks will open on Wednesday, 2 March, as normal with no disruption to depositors or clients,” the SRB said, noting that the failing arms of this particular global pariah “are now part of well-established, robust and stable banking groups.” As for the Austrian parent, SRB said “insolvency procedures will be carried out according to national law [and] eligible deposits up to €100,000 are protected by the Austrian deposit guarantee system.”
“I think it’s fair to say that it was a bank run that was really triggered by the heightened geopolitical risk and the sanctions kicking in,” SRB official Elke Koenig told the press on Wednesday.
Shares of state-run Gazprom PJSC dropped almost 100% in London. And no, that’s not a typo (figure below). The same was true for Lukoil PJSC.
Russian shares are now outcasts. S&P Dow Jones said it won’t be adding any stocks listed or domiciled in Russia to its benchmarks, MSCI is still deliberating on exactly what to do and the iShares MSCI Russia ETF is in suspended animation — it’s still trading, but new shares are suspended indefinitely.
“The buying and selling of shares of ERUS remains available on the secondary market [but] during this time, BlackRock cautions investors that ERUS may not meet its investment objective, may experience increased tracking error, may experience significant premiums or discounts to its net asset value and/or have bid-ask spreads wider than its historical average,” BlackRock cautioned, in a statement.
Oil continued its seemingly inexorable ascent Wednesday, as Brent hit $113 and European gas prices rose as much as 60% (figure below).
The ubiquitous people familiar with matter said Gazprom is being removed from trade credit sheets. “Gas and power traders are backing away from new deals with Gazprom Marketing & Trading Ltd.,” Bloomberg reported, citing unnamed sources, and adding that “there’s a further risk that companies start unwinding previously agreed contracts or clearing houses decide to stop doing business with the Russian company, liquidating their positions.” Apparently, there are now “very few” companies still interested in doing business with Gazprom.
Although the surge in gas prices will likely cause disruptions and demand destruction in Europe, the rapidity and scope of the world’s pivot away from anything to do with Putin’s Russia is simply remarkable. In its earnings report, Transneft said the risk of Western sanctions on Russian energy is “high.” The company is already on the US sanctions list. Apparently, Trafigura tried to sell Urals at a $19 discount and found no buyers.
The surge in crude has made winners of Mideast benchmark equity indexes, nearly all of which are on the top 10-best performer list in 2022, in dollar terms.
Speaking of dollars, the Russian finance ministry on Wednesday said Moscow sees gold as an “alternative” to the US dollar. Although the Kremlin said the Russian economy will survive the storm, Russia’s deputy PM conceded that the “scale of the sanctions was hard to predict.”
Hard to predict or unfathomable just one week ago?
Putin is in a very bad place. First and foremost, Putin wants to remain as the dictator (aka- the Don of the Russian mafia).
Ironically, the worst threat to Putin remaining in control might be from China. China looks at Russia as their supplier of wheat and oil products and would love to take financial control over those two commodities. If this happens, Putin would have to report to Xi.
As difficult as it would be for Putin to retreat from Ukraine- at least there would still be a path for him to remain as the dictator.
So retreat or fold to China? I guess we will find out how narcissistic he truly is.
Indeed, Putin is in a very bad place. Not unlike Hitler, who was a target for assassination, I wonder how many contracts the oligarchs have placed on Putin’s miserable head.
How about that for a coincidence! A Russian billionaire has put a price of $1,000,000 on Putin, though it’s not explicitly about erasing him: https://www.jpost.com/international/article-699098
If Pigtootin does practice safe raping of innocent neighboring countries and pulls out early, then whoever has gold to barter for the Gazprom stock is going to be astronomically rich in a few days/weeks/months/years(?). Assuming they can “Get Out!” of the Mutherland before the Mad King puts nuclear waste dipped in military grade neurotoxins into their speedos.
Speaking of chess, I have been playing out a few different scenarios in my head.
There is still a path whereby Putin is replaced by Navalny.
Washington Post reporting this morning about a unit of Kadyrovites, elite Chechen special forces, sent to kill Zelenskyy over the weekend that was stopped and eliminated after Ukrainian officials were alerted by Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB). If true, Putin is in deep trouble.
Everyone who cares about democracy and freedom needs to share (however they can) images of the destruction happening in Kharkiv and now Kiev as often and widely as possible. The Russian people, who find themselves between a rock and a hard place, need to see what is being done in their name.
@mfn Just read it. Veracity? IDK, it is war after all, and we are in Dawning of the Age of Digital Disinformation by and for the Masses. I want to hope it’s true. Which is exactly why I shouldn’t believe it. But, if it is true, Pigtootin won’t be able to find a table long enough for his next photo-op with the comrades. Wonder if he’ll live long enough try Zoom?
Thanks for that, mfn.
There are so many potential outcomes here. Including the overthrow of Putin by his own coterie. Might it be similar to the Berlin Wall falling moment?
Certainly well within the realms of possibility. Reminds me of the ancient Russian saying: “He who gets between or loses the loot hundreds of evil Oligarchs, Warlords, Puppet-Subject-Dictators, and just about every evil genius character in every James Bond and Austin Powers movie ever made is in some serious sh*t.” ROTFLMAO ? Rest in pieces Pigtootin.
Please adopt a professional cadence in your comments. Some of these are over-the-top silly. You can say the same things in a more eloquent way. We don’t need the silly nicknames and internet abbreviations, etc. Remember: People read this site at work.
Yeah, we don’t want to start sounding like the “wall street bets” guys…(not that there’s anything wrong with that 🙂
Thanks for your comment, H. I would also note the writer’s lowbred, teenage sense of humor.
Is Russia going to zero no.
As I absorb Putin news like kitty litter, I’ve backed away from thinking he’s suddenly gone mad, to accepting that he’s focused on a long term plan. His plan to make Russia Great Again is pathetic, evil and misguided, which is plain to see with Russian GDP.
Nonetheless, the concept that he’s blundered the invasion and will soon be at risk is absurd. Unfortunately the real death and ugly stuff has yet to unfold. The entire point of Putin’s terrorist offensive is to kill people and destroy infrastructure and bully his way forward.
Economic interests, like GDP related stability are most likely not a concern and all the powderpuff stupidity of toothless sanctions are pointless steps in an old meaningless dance.
Yes, we see Russian bank stocks plunging, but weigh that against increased global oil increases and ponder the hedging that’s actually going on.
The global support for Ukraine is nice, but in order to be meaningful, those efforts will need immediate supercharging!
FYI
After 2014 announcement of the sanctions, and by the end of July, Sberbank’s market value had dropped the most market value among the world’s major lenders plus investors moved $22 billion from Sberbank’s market capitalization.[36] Still, during the following year Sberbank’s share price grew back 89%.[
the substance of these kinds of comments keeps getting marked to market with each passing day. first it was “oh, they’ll never go the SWIFT route” (they did), then it was “Well, what about the reserves?” (we confiscated half of them), now it’s “well, he’s still got energy.”
If we sanction the energy, that’s it. you can consume all the Putin news you want to consume, but Russia needs hard currency. period. the only way they can get it right now is through energy sales or repoing their gold with a non-sanctioned friendly CB.
that’s just all there is to it.
I’m simply discouraged by the cyclical nature of Putin’s repetitive and sustained efforts to gain power. Prior sanctions have obviously not crippled or detoured him and if anything, he bounces back because of his allies. I’m not disagreeing or arguing with you about currency needs, just baffled by the complexity of geopolitical layers.
“Indian officials said last week that they may even help Russia find workarounds for the new sanctions by setting up rupee accounts to continue trade with Moscow, similar to what it did after the annexation of Crimea.”
This time and place call for strong ideas to encourage meaningful action and assistance for our Ukranian brothers and sisters and their families. I cannot abide in a country that fails to fully meet the challenge posed by Russia’s actions in Ukraine. How do we fully meet that challenge? Here is a suggestion that has met the test of time. The United Kingdom, Europe, Australia, China, and, in fact, the Russians benefited by loans of resources and volunteers from the United States in World War II. There is a bill in Congress to revive the program again. We should all speak loudly to encourage its passage. We cannot simply stand by while the Russians mercilessly slaughter innocent people and make Kiev or Kharkov into another Grozny or Allepo.
Here’s a link: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/how-nato-pilots-could-help-defend-ukraine/ar-AAUwtjL?ocid=BingNewsSearch
It has been shared that some Russian soldiers are sabotaging their own equipment. I am not skeptical about that. Conscripts stopping themselves in their own tracks literally, in a bid to live and not fight another day. They do not like this kind of autocratic rock and roll.