In an inauspicious development, Vladimir Putin on Monday recognized separatists in Ukraine.
“I consider it necessary to take the long overdue decision to recognize the independence and sovereignty of the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Luhansk People’s Republic,” Putin said, in a speech.
He informed Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz of his intent to sign the related decree ahead of time. Both France and Germany “expressed disappointment,” according to the Kremlin, but indicated a willingness to keep communication channels open.
Scholz condemned the decision, calling it a “stark contradiction to the Minsk agreements” and a “unilateral breach… on the part of Russia.” The White House will ban investment and trade to the separatist regions. Additional measures are coming “soon,” Jen Psaki said. The US called Putin’s gambit “a blatant violation of Russia’s international commitments,” echoing a statement from Ursula von der Leyen. Downing Street called him crazy. “I don’t know what is in his mind,” Boris Johnson said.
The decision came just hours after Macron appeared to make some headway in defusing the crisis. Although the French government suggested Macron secured an “in principle” agreement from both Washington and Moscow on a security summit, Dmitry Peskov later told reporters that “no concrete plans” were made.
Read more: Concrete Principles
Meanwhile, in a letter to the United Nations high commissioner for human rights, Bathsheba Nell Crocker, ambassador to the UN office in Geneva, said US intelligence has “credible information that indicates Russian forces are creating lists of identified Ukrainians to be killed or sent to camps following a military occupation.”
“We also have credible information that Russian forces will likely use lethal measures to disperse peaceful protests or otherwise counter peaceful exercises of perceived resistance from civilian populations,” the letter read, after noting that “in past Russian operations [these actions] have included targeted killings, kidnappings, forced disappearances, unjust detentions and the use of torture.”
Russian and Belarusian dissidents in exile are at risk, as are “journalists and anti-corruption activists, and vulnerable populations such as religious and ethnic minorities and LGBTQI+ persons,” the US warned.
Russia flatly denied the accusations, calling them “fiction.” “This is absolutely made up,” Peskov insisted.
With US markets on holiday, there weren’t many risk proxies trading when Putin’s plans to recognize the separatists were made public. But Bitcoin dipped, crude spiked and the ruble fell to a fresh intraday low.
It wasn’t immediately clear whether the decision ruled out a summit with Biden. The French government previously said any meeting was contingent on Russia not invading Ukraine.
If Putin could invade during a long weekend/when markets are closed, I’d be personally grateful. I don’t think this would be one of those “buy the rumors, sell the news” type of situation, given how trigger happy/scared traders and trading bots are these days.
Tucker Carlson and the MAGA crowd will be toasting with Stoly tonight.
So far the sanctions announced are against the break away republics, not Russia itself so I do see hope for defusing long term tensions…..may be some smaller sanctions against Russia in form of restrictions on the Oligarchs …but so far no full scale sanctions against Russia.
There will be more back and forth terms of level of escalation of sanction based on what else Russia does but so far the initial response is limited sanctions.
Russian forces will remain on alert if Ukraine decides this is not acceptable to them and tries to reclaim the separatist regions.
I dont think Europe is in a position to escalate this further – there will be more noise but the end game has been announced by the Russians and its just matter of how the dust settles. It could become a low grade civil war over time once the Russians withdraw but for now, I am sceptical something major happens.
American Nobility has a lot of money in Russia.
Noble Americans with money in Russia? We all make mistakes from time to time.
“Once the Russians withdraw” . . . why does this sound likely? Is Putin going to “recognize” these parts of Ukraine and then stand by and watch a “low grade civil war”. Sounds Pollyanna-ish to me.
Sanctions on the Donbas republics instead of Russia is a bad joke. Russia is proving it can chop off territories piece by piece with no repercussions. Not a good look to our Baltic allies.
If this de-escalates, and we gain some time, the Europeans and Americans had better push the peddle to the metal to catch up with the autocrats in military technology. Which also means it’s time to stop using the public schools as a baby sitting service. Educating more engineers and physics majors is a necessity. If not, we’ll always be fading in the rear view window.
What’s astounding to me is that Putin, Lavrov, and other Russian Ministry flunkies stood up and lied — and continue to lie — baldly and brazenly to the world about their intentions — while stooges in the West like Bannon and Tucker Carlson egged them on. This is fast turning into a low, dishonest decade, and most of the blame can be laid at the feet of Trump, Fox News, and the Republican Party.
H-Man, the push is on by Putin. Small push, markets recover. Big push, markets get very sick.
Revoke and deny visas to any Russian wishing to travel to Europe or the US, force their snotty oligarchs to stay in Russia or quarantine for vacays in China, see how much they like that, make Putin fight in two fronts. Enough with the velvet gloves, hit Russia with any possible financial and trade sanction imaginable, even if it crashes our markets and economy, we were heading for pain anyway.
Russia is making a deliberate mockery of the international order by copying what South Africa did, writ large: create utterly dependent “Bantustan” statelets occupied by Mother Russia and without outside leverage. Transnistria, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Donetsk, Luhansk all meeting each other in broom closets as if that equates to international recognition.
How long would it take to make Europe no longer reliant on Russian gas? To build enough LNG infrastructure and gas storage, solar + wind + battery storage, with coordinated maximum urgency? Maybe three years. By 2025, Putin’s Russia could be starting to go the way of the USSR. This would be expensive, but it is productive spending with high ROI. Germany is key, if it decides a future free of Russian energy blackmail is worth the short-term pain, the rest of Europe will follow.
Seconded.
BTW these steps should have been taken 25 years ago. Same with dependency on middle eastern oil. Imagine, if you will, where we would stand today if two decades ago western democracies had decided to seriously push for a transformation to sustainable energy. Severely reduced revenues for a****les like MBS and their ilk, less available money for them to fund radicals etc. Not to mention a way better position re.: climate change.
A guy can dream…
Also Kudos to Mr. H. who in the discussion thread of another post suggested that Putin might wait until the end of the winter olympics before invading Ukraine.