A hodgepodge of second-tier US economic data released Thursday offered nothing definitive.
Initial jobless claims for the week ended February 12 were 248,000, an increase of 23,000 from the prior week and above the highest estimate from 40 economists.
It was the first increase in four weeks (figure on the right, below).
At the risk of coming across as unduly dismissive or somehow not apprised of the fact that these numbers are actually people, there’s nothing to be divined from the claims data at this juncture. It’s just a meandering line (figure on the left, above).
There was a time during the pandemic when initial claims were the most important metric in the macro universe. That time passed long ago.
Meanwhile, Philly Fed missed, but at 16, the headline print wasn’t woefully off the mark. Consensus was looking for 20. The range was 12.5 to 25.3.
Market participants were focused on the price indexes, for obvious reasons. Prices paid fell below 70, while the prices received gauge rose, but remained below its November zenith (figure on the left, below).
Three in four firms reported rising input prices. Just 5% said input costs fell. More than half of firms reported higher prices for their own manufactured goods, against just 4% reporting decreases.
This month’s special questions asked firms about prices and wage costs. The figure on the right (above) shows you how this month’s responses compared to those in November and August. Suffice to say price pressures are expected to persist in perpetuity.
Summing up, the Philly survey painted a familiar picture of the world’s largest economy. “Responses suggest continued expansion for the region’s manufacturing sector,” the accompanying color said, noting that while gauges of current activity, new orders and shipments all fell from last month, they’re still positive and firms are still hiring. Price increases are becoming “more widespread,” but firms expect growth to continue. At least for another six months.
