Only One Thing Matters Now

Only One Thing Matters Now

Maybe it's time for stock replacement strategies. That was one takeaway from two-dozen pages penned by Goldman's Christian Mueller-Glissmann and Cecilia Mariotti, who cautioned that although stocks typically do ok with higher bond yields, "there can be temporary indigestion depend[ing] on the level of rates, the speed of the increase and the source of the move." This really is the only discussion that matters right now. In the simplest possible terms: If real yields keep rising and the incomin
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7 thoughts on “Only One Thing Matters Now

    1. Or, we get a serious selloff and much lower inflation in 1H — not hard to imagine or do, given all the leverage out there — setting us up for a nice rebound in the data going into the midterms. Fingers crossed.

  1. H-Man, it appears sentiment is now running the markets and sentiment wants some good news but there is no “good” news anywhere you look. Inflation, Hiring, Back-logs, Russia, and the most important news, rates are rising. Sentiment may be negative for some time to come.

    1. There is good news. Covid is transitioning from pandemic to endemic- and the world is reopening. Supply chains have to get retooled- this takes time and money, but it is happening and the retooled supply chains will be less prone to breaking down when the inevitable kink occurs in the chain.
      Putin is Putin and Germany wants natural gas more than they want to defend the Ukrainians. Next.
      On lesser, but very important news, Biden is extending work visas for foreign students after they graduate from a US university from one to three years. Hopefully, we just give them a path to citizenship. Younger generations are well equipped to embrace the “melting pot” of the US. I am young at heart and I not only welcome hard working people from other cultures- I hope they bring their culture, food and art to America. This isn’t going to happen overnight- but it will happen. The US will grow the pie with intelligent immigration.
      So I can wait in cash, bonds, equities or rental real estate. I am leaving crypto to H- altho I am interested in Defi (I first became intrigued listening to Chamath). I am most comfortable in equities and a few real estate properties in resort type areas that I rent out when not using. I am not a trader. Any other ideas?

      1. I hope you are right about the new visa rules. For some years now roughly half the doctoral students, medical students, and other highly skilled, highly intelligent individuals in US universities are non-native and if we don’t keep them in the US after graduation we lose the ability to gain from those educations. Our medical, scientific, and engineering research and knowledge as a nation depend on these folks. If we can’t keep them they will be selling what they have learned to our competitors.

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