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Two Economic Arguments You Probably Shouldn’t Make
Some things are obvious, but for various reasons, we choose to ignore them.
For example, one popular argument among those who harbor a constructive view on the prospects for the US economy in 2022 is the notion that "excess savings" accumulated during the course of the pandemic will support consumer spending.
Relatedly, some market observers are enamored with the notion that the $34 trillion gain in household wealth over the six quarters through Q3 2021 means Americans will feel emboldened to
Spot on, sir!
Finally, I’d reiterate that for (too) many Americans, the term “excess savings” is a ridiculous, not to mention insulting, misnomer.
I’m with you… but I also notice/d that the inflation we’re getting/got was mostly driven by excess spending. ‘makes it a bit harder/a bit more complicated to evaluate exactly why some Americans don’t have $400 in savings… and a bit more suspicious that, maybe, some of them preferred to spend the excess portion (the portion above lost income/above pre COVID spending) of their stymie checks rather than save it/pay down debt…
If a person does not have $400 of excess savings, then it is not “suspicious” that they would choose to spend a stimulus check rather than save it.
I fully understand ‘higher propensity to consume’ ; it also seems pretty basic to not blow everything in one go, especially if prices are going up…
Although not back up to 2019 levels. Credit card debt is starting to increase.
I’ve always been impressed by the American consumer. Add that episode to the legend!
As housing (single and multi family) increasingly become an institutional asset class, we will see the excess savings of the highest income become a suck on the savings of the lower and middle income.