Joe Biden is going to “work like hell” to get his economic plan through Congress, Jen Psaki said Monday, as Democrats once again grappled with the harsh reality that is Joe Manchin.
If that talking point sounds familiar, that’s because Psaki and Biden have used it before. The administration is always “working like hell” on something. “He’s no stranger to legislative challenges,” Psaki reminded reporters.
That’s certainly true, but even for a Beltway wall fixture like Biden, navigating America’s post-Trump politics is a Herculean task. During a radio interview Monday, Manchin blamed Biden’s “staff” for proposals he called “absolutely inexcusable.”
Who knows. Stocks didn’t like it, that’s for sure. US equities fell sharply, consistent with losses logged by global equities to kick off the new week. The three-day loss on the S&P was among the largest in seven months (figure below).
Bonds weren’t much help. Treasurys were mixed, with yields cheaper at the long-end in the lead up to this week’s 20-year sale.
With Monday’s losses, big-cap US tech had fallen in five of the last six sessions, and posted declines of 1% or more in five of the last eight. “A simple average of the compound annual returns of AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, GOOG and TSLA over the past three years is 70%,” Macro Risk Advisors’ Dean Curnutt remarked, in a recent note. “In the context of their starting market caps in 2019, these are truly extraordinary numbers. To be underweight them to any degree is simply too costly.”
That speaks to the crowding dynamic and also to the notion that US equities are just a giant long duration bet waiting to blow up in the event macro volatility picks up, inflation stays elevated, yields rise, revenue growth disappoints, rate hikes trigger a de-rating or some combination of those risks.
Tesla fell 3.5% Monday. The shares have now erased the entirety of the gains notched on the heels of the Hertz deal (figure below).
There’s a joke about Elon Musk selling shares, but I can’t muster the energy to tell it.
Bloomberg’s Felice Maranz described Monday as a “risk-off-everything” session. Stocks were lower, bonds were lower, oil was lower, gold was lower and Bitcoin was lower for most of the US trading day. Even the dollar fell.
Seemingly everyone has COVID. In the past 24 hours, Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker and New York Health Commissioner Mary Bassett all said they have the virus. So does Jim Cramer. “I know exactly how I got it,” Cramer said Monday. “The problem is it works so fast. You can’t stop it.”
I was thinking yesterday morning about expanding our New Year’s Eve party invitation list from 10 to 45. I’m wondering now if 10 even makes sense…
since we’re all 65+…
I am back to being semi-reclusive. Actually, I was kind of exhausted from that October- November period when I was out and about so much- trying to make up some lost time with friends and family.
Any good book recommendations?
Graeber’s Dawn of Everything is next on my list.
The new Neal Stephenson book, Termination Shock
Thx, everyone.
Try David Foster Wallace’s “Infinite Jest”. It won’t take forever to read it, but it’ll seem like it.
Looks great. Love the dark side of the inherent disfunction in human relationships.
Just finished binge watching White Lotus.
CDC says Omicron already making up 3/4 infections in US. Wow
If they keep reporting everyone who gets infected with Covid, it’s going to take a lot of space to list the names of 8 billion people. I was already on that list back in July 2020. No or mild symptoms. Wife has been vaccinated and is tested at work every week and negative.
I’ve had my three jabs and natural immunity. I just go about normal life. no mask unless absolutely mandated. Don’t know and don’t care if the person next to me has mask or vaccinated. My parents are in their eighties, had their three jabs and go about their life. Everyone has had plenty of time to make their choice.
Others’ free choice regarding vaccinations is fine and dandy until a loved one needs to go to the hospital with appendicitis and they receive subpar care and end up with sepsis because non-vaccinated COVID patients are hogging space, doctors, and resources. You don’t want to depend on a hospital that is triaging care.
Perhaps our way out of this is to cap the number of ICUs, personnel, and insurance coverage allocated to non-vaccinated COVID patients.
Michael Lewis “ the premonition “ is a good read