Hours after results from one of the first real-world studies of the Omicron variant’s capacity to evade existing vaccines suggested the Pfizer shot was 70% effective at cutting Omicron-related hospital admissions, the company released new study results for its COVID pill, Paxlovid.
Final results from all enrollees in a Phase 2/3 study confirmed the pill cut the risk of hospitalization and death by 89% in non-hospitalized, high-risk adult patients with COVID-19 treated within three days of symptom onset, and by 88% in those treated within five days.
Paxlovid is expected to retain efficacy against Omicron and other variants (it works differently than vaccines).
All of the above was as-expected. It seems obvious that the pill will become part of the medical community’s arsenal when it comes to preventing death from COVID in high-risk patients.
However, a separate set of data detailed by Pfizer Tuesday suggested the case for Paxlovid may be weaker for lower-risk patients and for the vaccinated.
Specifically, the primary endpoint was not met in a Phase 2/3 study on i) unvaccinated adults classified as having a low risk of hospitalization or death and ii) vaccinated adults with one or more risk factors for progressing to severe illness.
That study measured “self-reported, sustained alleviation of all symptoms for four consecutive days” versus placebo. The trial is ongoing, but the interim analysis may mean the pill won’t be the first option for mild cases in otherwise healthy individuals.
Still, a secondary endpoint showed Paxlovid reduced hospitalizations among lower-risk patients by 70%.
When taken in conjunction with the results from the South African study released on Tuesday, those inclined to a constructive view on the prospects for medical advances (vaccines or therapeutics) to mitigate critical illness and prevent a wave of COVID-related deaths comparable to that seen during the worst days of the pandemic, are likely to be more confident in their assessment.
As discussed here across multiple articles Monday, market participants are now obsessed with Fed tightening and the evolution of central banks’ reaction function in the face of persistently elevated inflation. COVID has taken a backseat to policy concerns, notwithstanding the interplay between policy and the pandemic.
In the December edition of BofA’s Global Fund Manager Survey, also out Tuesday, just 15% of respondents identified a COVID-19 resurgence as the top tail risk (figure below).
By contrast, hawkish central banks garnered 42%, while inflation claimed 22%.
It was the first time since May of 2018 (three months into Jerome Powell’s tenure as Fed Chair), that investors suggested the biggest worry is a potential monetary policy error.
