Jobs Report Misses Big, But Unemployment Rate Drops Sharply

The US economy added just 210,000 jobs last month, the government said Friday. The headline NFP print was the lowest of 2021 and represented a large downside miss. Consensus expected 550,000 (figure below). The range, from more than six-dozen economists surveyed, was 375,000 to 800,000. November's headline thus missed the lowest estimate by a mile. Revisions were positive, though. September was revised up by 67,000 and October by 15,000, adding a combined 82,000 "extra" jobs to the previous

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One thought on “Jobs Report Misses Big, But Unemployment Rate Drops Sharply”

I don’t understand something.

How can economists expect a 4.5% unemployment rate, but get an actual 4.2% rate (with increased participation, creating a higher hurdle), but job creations disappoint economists’ projections by 300k?

To word it differently, if economists thought it would take 536k new jobs to improve unemployment to 4.5%, how does a mere 235k new jobs improve unemployment to 4.2%, especially since an increased participation rate increases the denominator?