326,000 Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week, fewer than expected.
The 38,000 decline from the previous week’s upwardly-revised level marked a welcome reprieve. Headline initial claims rose in each of the previous three weeks, the worst stretch since April of 2020 (second figure below).
Consensus expected 348,000 from Thursday’s print. Again, the downside surprise was welcome news.
The four-week moving average rose slightly to 344,000 (figure above). Continuing claims were 2.7 million in the week to September 25, fewer than anticipated.
Coming as it does the day before September payrolls, the data had no real chance of moving the macro needle barring some manner of anomalous surge.
Still, when considered in conjunction with Wednesday’s upbeat ADP report, you could argue we now have constructive backward-looking and real-time takes on the labor market.
A better-than-expected NFP print on Friday would make for a “clean sweep” vis-à-vis this week’s labor market data.
On the other hand, a disappointing NFP would obviously negate the good vibes, even if such a development might skew positive for risk assets to the extent it gave the Fed pause.
In any case, that’s (more than) enough extrapolation. Initial claims snapped a three-week streak of increases. That’s the takeaway. Superfluous editorializing is… well, superfluous.
We come for the “takeaways”. We stay for your “superfluous editorializing.
Totally share your concerns about late-stage democracy (previous post), but based on the two recent job reports and, anecdotally, the 4,000 people who packed into the Beacon Theater last night (you had to show proof of vaccination at the door) to see Jorma Kaukonen and the Tedeschi-Trucks Band, it looks like markets are ready to party like its 1999 — for now, at any rate. (Dow Jones Global Index also singing a happy tune this morning.)