348,000 Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week, down markedly from the prior week and a new pandemic-era low.
Consensus expected 364,000, so the latest “real time” read on the labor market represented a sizable beat. The range, from more than three-dozen economists, was 340,000 to 395,000.
The four-week moving average fell to 377,750 (figure below), the lowest since March 14, 2020.
At 2.82 million, continuing claims for the week of August 7 matched estimates.
The drop in initial claims was the fourth consecutive weekly decline (figure below).
At the margins (and taken in conjunction with July’s robust jobs report), I suppose this suggests the labor market has regained momentum on the road to clearing some of the well-documented “frictions” which produced to the widest disparity between vacancies and hires in history.
Pandemic Unemployment Assistance claims rose in the week to August 14, while ongoing PUA and PEUC claims were 4,877,668 and 3,786,488, respectively. All told, then, 11.5 million Americans are still receiving some type of assistance.
Meanwhile, Philly Fed came in below estimates, printing 19.4 versus an expected 23.1 (figure below). That, just days after Empire manufacturing missed. We’ve now had three sentiment gauges print below expectations in less than a week.
August’s underwhelming print marked the fourth consecutive decline, even as activity continued to expand.
On the bright side, “employment increases were more widespread this month,” the survey said. But, as you can imagine, price pressures persist.
The prices paid index rose (figure below), after falling 10 points in July. In June it touched a 42-year high.
Almost three-quarters of firms reported increases in input prices. Just 3% reported decreases.
The current prices received index jumped seven points to 53.9. That was the highest since May 1974.
