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Strike Two
Hot (or cold) on the heels of a disastrously bad University of Michigan sentiment print, Empire manufacturing whiffed, marking a somewhat inauspicious start to the new week.
The headline gauge for August printed 18.3, well below the 28.5 consensus and a marked decline from July (figure below).
The range, from three-dozen economists, was 15 to 35.6.
Frankly, I've grown weary of the "this series is volatile" disclaimer when it comes to real-time color on the regional Fed gauges. It feels like
Dataflow may continue negative – including a slowdown in retail sales – but Covid new case curves for the states, on a log scale, looks like starting to round over.