Strike Two

Hot (or cold) on the heels of a disastrously bad University of Michigan sentiment print, Empire manufacturing whiffed, marking a somewhat inauspicious start to the new week. The headline gauge for August printed 18.3, well below the 28.5 consensus and a marked decline from July (figure below). The range, from three-dozen economists, was 15 to 35.6. Frankly, I've grown weary of the "this series is volatile" disclaimer when it comes to real-time color on the regional Fed gauges. It feels like

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