Consumer Confidence Surges, S&P Hits Goldman’s Year-End Target

US consumers are getting more confident by the month.

Or at least according to The Conference Board’s gauge.

At 127.3, the headline print for June easily topped consensus, which was looking for 119.0. The range of estimates from five-dozen economists was 110 to 122.

It was the fifth consecutive monthly gain (figure above). May’s print was revised higher.

Both the present situation and expectations gauges logged sizable increases. “Consumers’ assessment of current conditions improved again, suggesting economic growth has strengthened further in Q2,” Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board said Tuesday.

Notably, a rise in short-term inflation expectations had almost no impact on confidence or buying plans. Indeed, Franco noted that “the proportion of consumers planning to purchase homes, automobiles, and major appliances all rose” as did vacation intentions, which bodes well for services. Perhaps there’s something to that “excess savings” thesis after all.

The figure (below) is just the familiar “Main Street versus Wall Street” chart again, only updated with the latest Conference Board print.

Although consumers’ outlook for the jobs market was “mixed” in June, less than 11% expected business conditions to deteriorate going forward. Almost one in five consumers expected to see their incomes increase, while just 8.5% expected to make less.

54.4% of consumers said jobs are “plentiful.” That was a two-decade high.

Meanwhile, the S&P hit Goldman’s year-end target on Tuesday morning.

Maybe it’s finally “trickling down.”