Jobless Claims Surge, Philly Prices Highest Since Horse And Buggy

412,000 Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week, far more than expected.

Out of nearly four-dozen economists polled, no one predicted a headline initial claims print above 390,000.

The news might fairly be described as a setback of sorts, minor though it may be (figure below).

The four week moving average fell to 395,000. The previous week was barely revised (lower).

The market wanted 3.43 million on continuing claims. Instead, we got 3.52 million. Some quick, bar napkin calculus reveals that 3.52 million is more than 3.43 million, so that counts as a miss.

The 37,000 WoW rise in initial claims was the most since April 3 (figure below).

Pandemic Unemployment Assistance claims rose. Ongoing PUA and PEUC claims were 6,120,596 and 5,157,445, respectively, in the week through May 29.

Meanwhile, June Philly Fed posted a slight miss, printing 30.7 versus 31 consensus. The new orders gauge dropped, but employment rose handily.

Prices paid rose to 80.7 (figure below). That’s the highest since June 1979, but who’s counting?

The current prices received index rose a fourth month to 49.7, the highest since October 1980, around the time light bulbs became widely available.

Over 51% of firms reported increases in prices in June, up from 43% last month. A laughable 2% reported decreases.

On the bright side, the future activity index jumped 17 points from May to 69.2, the highest in almost three decades. So, there’s some “hope” for you. I’m told that “floats.”