A Rather Strange Place

A Rather Strange Place

Another week went by and the title and subtitle atop my simple, daily chart of 10-year US yields still says the same thing. There's a "calm despite the storm" as 10s "remain rangebound amid a tenuous macro standoff." After shooting up near 1.80% during Q1's mini-tantrum, yields have settled into a sideways drift (figure below). "Momentum’s urgency has waned," BMO's US rates team said, adding that "a sideways shuffle would feature the local yield high at 1.704% for support, with the true bear
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5 thoughts on “A Rather Strange Place

  1. If you turn on CNBC, they talk about increasing inflation non-stop, yet Treasury yields have not moved for 3 months.
    10 Year yields trade about 1% below breakeven rates……Treasuries think inflation is transitory.

  2. CNBC is not a good source for opinions on rates with possibly the exception of Steve Liesman. It is financial entertainment not news.

  3. “Ours is a reality defined by a stark juxtaposition between i) the “better than ever” dynamic evident in some areas and ii) utter devastation, including the massive loss of life and complete destruction of livelihoods, in others.”

    Food for thought as we enter this holiday weekend and I am glad you concluded with that. Two sides to this coin lest we forget, never better and never recover.

    Also have to admit seeing “CNBC” mentioned twice in as many comments made me chuckle, big difference between heads talking and minds speaking. I tend to mute the former and type “H” in my address bar for the latter. It magically fills in the rest and I just hit enter to land here.

    Time to unplug. Enjoy the weekend all.

  4. From Financial Times:

    The macro cannot be extrapolated from the microscopic, at least not until after the event. For mainstream equilibrium theory, this is a bitter red pill. But it seems the Fed has swallowed it, waking up from the slumber of dismal science to a far stranger reality.

    Whip Inflation Now, whip it good …

  5. US yields will be capped … inflation can run, look for pricing power … covid was a mid-cycle pothole — this whole article seems to be saying “Buy tech. We were just kidding about the rotation (again)”. Zounds.

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