“Just” 576,000 Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week.
It’s difficult to know how to characterize the latest claims numbers. Last I checked, 576,000 is still more than half a million. So, that’s bad. But in the pandemic context, 576,000 is very “good.”
It’s not just that jobless claims are now at a 13-month low. This is the first time claims have been substantially below the pre-pandemic record since things went south more than a year ago (figure below).
The four-week moving average fell to 683,000. That too is below the pre-pandemic record high.
The 193,000 WoW drop was the largest since last summer’s aborted attempt at reopening the US economy (figure below).
Continuing claims rose to 3.731 million during the week ended April 3. That was actually a bit worse than expected, but it was lost in the headline.
Pandemic Unemployment Assistance claims fell in the week to April 10. Ongoing PUA and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation claims were 7,053,575 and 5,160,267, respectively, in the week to March 27.
When taken in conjunction with a blockbuster US retail sales report released simultaneously, the data now clearly suggests that, if nothing else, the US economy is riding a stimulus high. Whether it lasts depends on the ongoing vaccination effort which suffered a setback this week with the J&J pause, but still looks to be largely on track.
“The $1,400 stimulus payment will keep retail sales momentum strong for April and with job creation continuing to improve – note the fantastic weekly jobless claim number of 576,000 for April 10th versus 769,000 the previous week – the fundamentals underpinning the [US] economy look very robust,” ING’s James Knightley said Thursday.
“Ongoing relaxation of COVID containment measures will increase the opportunities for job creation and spending in the economy with Q2 GDP growth potentially reaching double figures,” he added.
Again, we shouldn’t let it be lost that 576,000 is still quite a few people. But, any progress is more than welcome. Well, unless you’re blessed enough to own a bunch of stocks. In which case any progress is welcome except for “substantial further progress.”
