Join institutional investors, analysts and strategists from the world's largest banks: Subscribe today
Already have an account? log in
What Happened To The ‘Stimmy’ Surge?
Conventional wisdom had it that once the new round of virus relief payments hit bank accounts, Americans would likely put at least a portion of the money into US stocks.
If they didn't buy shares, they'd surely squander their stimulus on deep out-of-the-money call options, or "sophisticated scratch-off tickets," as I refer to them.
The assumption that new "stimmy" would invariably find its way into the market was predicated on the idea that surging retail interest in equities and options durin
buy the rumor, sell the news.
folks getting stimmy checks this time are simply catching up on rent and bills; the tax mules didnt get a check this time and those, imo, are the ones putting $2k on tsla to win. Fl is “wide open” but a lot of businesses are closed. miami is in yhe news, but daytona is like a mid-May kind of level.
were seeing max econ bounceback right now. a slow xrwal to fill the ‘output gap’ over thr next 3 years…recovery to recovery with past econ stat always with an (*) bc various shut down/reopen/reshut/ stimmy check/open/stimmy check kind of spending pattern.
lets help jerome out and not discuss the l/t theorictical effects of relying on the nonexistent ‘wealth effect’ for a generation to create a robust middle class; and just let him print and run neg interest rates till the cows come home, after all in the end ere all dead anyway.
I agree that things are different now, and would guess that the propensity to save or invest the current stiimulus checks will be far lower than for the first ones, as financial strains have simply had that much longer to appear and grow.