Buy High, Sell Higher

Buy High, Sell Higher

Everywhere you turn there's a dazed soundbite these days. The overt nature of the fiscal-monetary nexus on display in the US has left analysts somewhat bereft when it comes to forecasting. Not that sell-side forecasts have a sterling track record. But typically, one can discern a sense of confidence in various targets, no matter how misplaced it might turn out to be. Not so much in 2021, though. Not only did last year remind us that anything can happen, the sheer scope of the policy response b
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3 thoughts on “Buy High, Sell Higher

  1. “For those who compare the relative value of equities versus bonds via the earnings yield to real bond yield framework, the spread between those two variables remains above average, at about 5%,” the bank went on to say, noting that’s “almost always been sufficient to deliver equity outperformance versus bonds over the year, barring a major macro shock.”

    Under this framework, equity multiples in the UK should be near infinite (FTSE 100 fwd P/E is only around 15x) given 30y gilt linker real yields are at -2%…

  2. There are a lot of forces that militate against longer term thinking. When someone puts up good numbers, I ask 2 questions: Average life of position, and degree of leverage….I’m not pretending this is the be and end all, but it is helpful to know…..

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