Nomura’s McElligott On The Comeback Of The Reflation Narrative

Nomura’s McElligott On The Comeback Of The Reflation Narrative

Just a few weeks back, it appeared as though the reflation trade and the pro-cyclical impulse across markets might be running out of steam. If it was, it was due for a breather. After all, things had run pretty far, pretty fast since November, when Joe Biden's election, Janet Yellen's Treasury nomination, and vaccine readouts bolstered the re-opening trade. Late last month, Morgan Stanley said "the reflation rotation may be ready for a much-needed, and deserved, vacation." It was, on many metr
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3 thoughts on “Nomura’s McElligott On The Comeback Of The Reflation Narrative

  1. Calm again….. my how the world seems set to end so often these days.
    There is valid concern that the Covid mutations may cause another bump up in daily deaths as vacines may not keep up with it and that would start showing late March. Fingers crossed.

    1. Regarding the end of the world, it does seem that commentators of all stripes, and seemingly, all depths of understanding, craft their words to fit the price action. Maybe I notice it more because I’m older than when “Lehman” was a thing. Or, perhaps it’s because the “rinse” cycles are shorter and my working memory still holds last weeks messaging.

      The tone of discussion across the platforms I follow was serious last week. This week, commentators, again, of all stripes and market understanding, are chiding with a smile, and making wry comments about the schmucks who thought they could make money in the casino.

  2. NVAX and JNJ clinical trial data from South Africa, where the SA variant is 90% of Covid cases, show diminished efficacy vs all Covid but extremely high efficacy (in the trials, 100%) vs severe disease including hospitalization/death.

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