712,000 Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week, far fewer than expected, marking a welcome reprieve after two consecutive weeks of disconcerting figures.
The market was expecting 775,000. Last week’s level, which marked a five-week high when it was first reported, was revised up by 9,000 to 787,000.
The latest initial claims print brings us back to within shouting distance of the pre-pandemic record, which isn’t saying much — that we’re now nine full months into the crisis and claims are still sitting above the old all-time high speaks to the ongoing nature of the malaise in a labor market which, while healing, is still anything but “normal.”
The four-week moving average dropped to 739,500, down more than 11,000 on-week.
Continuing claims came in at 5.52 million for the week ended November 21. That too is down pretty sharply from the previous week. It’s also better than estimates. Consensus was looking for 5.8 million.
PEUC claims rose again, as the jobless apparently exhaust regular state benefits. Continuing PUA claims — the program aimed at self-employed individuals and “gig” workers — fell by nearly 340,000 to 8.87 million in the week through November 14.
While the latest figures are encouraging (or what passes for “encouraging” these days), 712,000 on the headline initial claims print just puts us back to where we were last month, and is still indicative of severe strain in the labor market.
The proliferation of the virus and new lockdowns across the country threaten to catalyze a new wave of job losses over the next couple of months.
The $908 billion, bipartisan stimulus package backed by Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer would provide some $180 billion for the extension of emergency, pandemic unemployment benefits, including an extra $300 per week for four months.
That would effectively buy time for Joe Biden to get into office and begin working across the aisle to figure out what’s necessary going forward.
If benefits are allowed to lapse, consumer spending could suffer materially, as detailed extensively in these pages of late.
McConnell now has the cudgel and 908 billion ain’t gonna happen. He would rather see Biden stumble right out of the box then provide a bridge to make things better early next year.