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Jobless Claims, Signal Versus Noise, And ‘Better’ Versus ‘Good’
The US economy rebounded in predictably robust fashion during the third quarter, but the recovery remains fragile.
Underscoring that fragility was the latest read on jobless claims. 751,000 Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week, less than expected, but still well above the pre-pandemic record set decades ago.
Economists were looking for 770,000 but you're encouraged to remember that "better" is everywhere and always a relative term these days -- "better" versus consensus is not t
Axios calls the backwards checkmark an inverted square-root symbol. Whatever. The figure will soon dribble into a deep ditch, the one that will fill up with COVID-19 bodies “just around the corner.”
We are in for a long fall and winter. I suspect things will improve after the weather warms up and we have the reasonable possibility of a vaccine that can be distributed widely and other treatments and procedures for the illness. We are at least 6 months away from that situation around the country. We will get through this, but it won’t be easy and it won’t be like turning on a switch. I am presuming a Democratic sweep that will also get a reasonably robust stimulus package done to help municipalities, fund a nationwide treatment and spead mitigation, as well as more help for the most affected of our population. That is a lot of assumptions- so take it for what it is- a prediction that has a decent shot of coming true.